by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 01:35:00 PM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  
Heavy truck sales were at 505 thousand SAAR in April, down from 450 thousand in March, and up 0.8% from 501 thousand SAAR in April 2025 (essentially unchanged YoY).  
Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 4.6%.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior

Keep reading this article on Bill McBride - Calculedriskblog.