Survey results here, FT article . GDP level more optimistic than May SPF.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth June 2025 survey median (red square), GDPNow of 7/1 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters May 2025 survey median (tan line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, FT-Booth June survey, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations. 

Note that the FT-Booth survey is considerably more optimistic regarding the level of GDP than the May SPF median.

Figure 2: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth June 2025 survey median (red square), 10th percentile (gray +) 90th percentile (gray+), GDPNow of 7/1 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, FT-Booth June survey, Atlanta Fed,and author’s calculations. 

While the FT-Booth median is above the May SPF median, the 10/90 percentile band encompasses the SPF.

The FT-Booth survey respondents seem to think a recession has been

Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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