June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat over the last six months through May, many key indicators followed by the NBER  Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) are flat or falling (although NBER places primary emphasis on employment, which is still rising, along with personal income).

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment using smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. 2025Q1 GDP is third release. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/2/2025 release), and author’s calculations. 

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Keep reading this article on Econbrowser Blog - James Hamilton & Menzie Chinn.

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