Plain & Simple

I read lots of technical analysis research. A lot of it is produced by friends of mine (what’s up JC, Ari, Jon, Andy!). Some of it comes from large firms and some of it comes from independent traders. I don’t place trades based upon it but I use it inform my opinions and views.

Price is truth at any given moment, more so than any other indicator. It tells you exactly how your fellow market participants are acting, not what they’re saying or what they might someday do. Now, you can extrapolate this truth into a prediction, of course, but then you’re guessing just like everyone else. Nothing wrong with that, every investor is guessing about something. Some of us have better inputs for our guesses than others.

I think the starting point for any question about price in the future ought to begin with price in the present. This is not an endeavor to determine what a security is worth or what the underlying company’s or market’s fundamentals are. That’s a different question. This question is “What are investors doing now, what have they been doing in the recent past and how likely are they to continue doing what they are doing / have been doing?”

Aha, you say. Is there a trend or has a trend just ended? How can we determine whether or not a new trend has begun? 

No one will agree on these things because everyone’s time frame is different. You can pick a time frame and chart it out in order to arrive at any

Keep reading this article on The Reformed Brocker.