Having conversations about the stock market this summer, with all the BBQs and days off, etc. One of the things that strikes me these days is how completely unaware civilians are about how old and…non-utilitarian their information is.
Many of these talks go something like this…
So, Facebook is in some trouble, huh?
Yes, I guess.
I sold it. I think there’s going to be fines and regulation and stuff.
Well, yes, this has already started…
It’s going to be bad.
Okay, but Facebook is up like fifty percent this year, with bad headlines every week, so…are you referring to some new sort of troubles?
Yes. It’s actually doubled the performance of the S&P Communications Services sector, so, do you think the other companies in that sector are in even bigger trouble by your logic?
No, I was just thinking there’s going to be a crackdown and fines and stuff and-
So you don’t think millions of professional investors have the same information about this that you have? You don’t think this reality has already been digested and priced into Facebook’s share price over months and months? I mean, if you and I are talking about something in a backyard in the Hamptons, you don’t think the market is already fully aware of it?
Had almost identical conversations about Nike’s SJW routine, the Boeing plane problems, the launch of Disney’s app and how it might affect Netflix, the prices of oil and oil stocks, the Malaysian lawsuit against Goldman Sachs, etc.
I think that people who