Wisconsin under Trump Trade War 2.0
Manufacturing employment, exports declines. Employment release from DWD today.
Distance Energy Healing – Traditional, Authentic, and Compassionate Support, including Prayer.
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A median voter theory of right-wing populism
From a recent paper: Populists are often defined as those who claim that they fill “political representation gaps” -differences between the policymaking by established parties and the “popular will.” Research has largely neglected to what extent this claim is correct. I study…
A Man Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 Is Still Odds on Favorite for BLS Commissioner
It’s really a statement on our times. Source; Kalshi, accessed 8/15/2025. As noted in an excellent article by Lauren Gurley in WaPo, these are some views of Dr. Antoni, two of which I was unaware of: Bureau of Labor Statistics data…
Building a Safety Net for Retirement Income with Buffer Assets
One of the most significant risks retirees face is the sequence of returns risk, which is the danger that poor investment returns early in retirement will have a disproportionate impact on long-term financial security. This is because you are selling holdings…
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in JulyA brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Early Read on Existing Home Sales in JulyBased on publicly available…
Coffee Break: AI Deskills Healthcare, mRNA on the Block, Three Hominins Living Together, the Workweek, and a College Essay Worth Reading
Part the First: AI and Deskilling in Healthcare. Yes, it does happen as described in the news article As AI spreads through health care, is the technology degrading providers’ skills? (New study suggests that, after having a specialized tool taken away,…
Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (August 16–17)
× Please contact your Firm's Group AdminIAR CE is only available if your organization contracts with Kitces.com for the credit. Please contact your firm's group administrator to enable this feature. If you do not know who your group administrator is you…
Michigan Survey: Sentiment Down, Inflation Expectations Up
Preliminary readings for August. Not particularly good. Figure 1: One year ahead CPI inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), Consumer Sentiment (red, right scale). Dashed line at “Liberation Day”. Source: U.Michigan. 5 year inflation expectations at 3.9% were up from 3.4%,…
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial Production, Retail Sales
The picture as of today’s releases, with IP, retail sales below consensus. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), implied NFP Bloomberg consensus as of 7/1 (blue +), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income…
Friday links: making correct decisions
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ABF to close UK’s largest bioethanol plant after government funding talks fail
The UK's largest bioethanol plant looks set to close, after owner Associated British Foods (ABF) confirmed it has failed to secure support from the government to keep the biofuel facility running. ABF...
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for…
Global Briefing: US sets collision course with IMO over net zero shipping efforts
Hopes that an international levy on shipping emissions could be introduced have received a major blow, after the US this week publicly rejected plans from the International Maritime Organization (IMO)...
URGENT: White House Report Will Push Crypto Higher!
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRTPTO REPORTSHow Washington’s new blueprint aims for a crypto golden age.Dominalt12 min read·6 hours ago--The White House has just told us exactly how it wants to shape the crypto industry through…
Crypto Whales Moving Money Out of Bitcoin Into These 2 Altcoins
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO INVESTINGWhales are selling Bitcoin for these altcoinsDominalt8 min read·4 hours ago--Bitcoin just broke new all-time highs, but are whales now selling to move into other coins? If so, what are…
Shamir’s Secret Sharing Algorithm: Principles and Blockchain Applications
Amit Davidson7 min read·Jul 12, 2025--Nuclear launch codes (often called the “Gold Codes”) are also splitIntroductionShamir’s Secret Sharing (SSS) is a cryptographic scheme invented by Adi Shamir in 1979 to solve the problem of safeguarding a secret without a single point…
Powering the Future of Real-World Assets With Plume Network
Member-only storyPVMihalache3 min read·1 day ago--Plume Network is the modular EVM Layer-1 blockchain built to bring real-world assets (RWAs) on-chain in a compliant, scalable, and DeFi-native way. You can now tap into comodities, gold, silver and other assets!Instead of simply porting…
MiB: Deven Parekh, Insight Partners on PE/VC
This week, I speak with Deven Parekh, Managing Director at Insight Partners, a growth equity investment fund based in New York City. Since joining Insight in 2000, he has made more than 140 investments in enterprise software, data, and consumer internet…
‘Alternative Facts’ Aren’t a Reason To Skip Vaccines
Yves here. Articles like this drive me crazy. The efforts to shore up a discredited medical orthodoxy, here with vaccines, demonstrates in a pet peeve cognitive bias, that of black and white thinking. It is undeniable that RFK, Jr. getting a…
What hope now for the Global Plastics Treaty?
The most disappointing aspect of the failure of governments, for a second time, to deliver a Global Plastics Treaty is not the collapse of talks themselves. That felt far and away the most likely outcome...
Podcast links: beating the house
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What should I ask David Commins?
Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him. David recently published Saudi Arabia: A Modern History, a very good and useful book. He has numerous other books on Wahhabism, the history of the Gulf region, and also Syria. Currently he…
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in July
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined…
Retail Sales Increased 0.5% in July
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food…
Sales of zero emission HGVs jump 59 per cent
Sales of zero emission heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) during the first half of 2025 rose nearly 60 per cent year-on-year, according to the latest industry figures. An update from the Society of Motor Manufacturers...
Stop Investing In Value Stocks Over Growth If You Want To FIRE
Since writing about FIRE in 2009, I’ve favored investing in growth stocks over value stocks. As someone who wanted to retire early from finance, my goal was to build as large a capital base as quickly as possible. Once I retired,…
Tabarrok on Flight Delays
Tyler already linked to Max’s excellent post on flight delays but Fortune gives you the backstory: On one sweltering summer afternoon in June, thunderstorms rolled over Boston Logan International Airport. It was the kind of brief, predictable summer squall that East…
8/15/2025
Why are Colorado rabbits growing tentacles and horns? Denver Post Insecure about their looks, more men than ever are getting plastic surgery STAT Climate/Environment International “State of the Climate” report confirms record-high greenhouse gases, global temperatures, global sea level, and ocean…
Peak Neoliberalism: Wall Street Journal Pearl-Clutches Over Lack of Mobility Due to High Housing Costs, Insufficient Pay
[If you see this note, it means the post launched before complete because reasons. Please return at 7:45 AM EDT for a final version] It’s telling when a mainstream outlets like the Wall Street Journal is alert enough to notice an…
‘Bitterly disappointing’: Green economy reacts to the failure of Global Plastics Treaty talks
The failure of the latest UN talks in Geneva to deliver a promised Global Plastics Treaty has this morning sparked fierce criticism from business leaders and environmental campaigners alike. While...
Netanyahu’s Argentine Dilemma Reinforces Just How Isolated He Has Become On the Global Stage
Javier Milei is desperate to declare Netanyahu an “honorary resident” of Argentina. But if the Israeli prime minister visits the South American country, he could face arrest. Argentina’s Javier Milei government is arguably the most vocal, unabashed supporter of Israel’s war…
Crypto Whales Buying 5 Altcoins For THIS WEEK (Secrets Revealed)
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO INVESTINGWhales are loading up on these five specific altcoins.Dominalt11 min read·1 day ago--We have a big week ahead as Bitcoin and all its pumped over the weekend. Whales have been…
This Is When XRP Will “FLY” — Historic Ripple Win? RWA Explodes
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO NEWSXRP just took the lead in real-world assetsDominalt9 min read·2 days ago--This one new DEX is leading an entire ecosystem and is up over 50% this week. Did XRP just…
UK’s ‘first’ all-electric football stadium passes planning hurdle
Oxford United's hopes of building "one of the greenest" football stadiums in the UK have taken a major step forward, after the local council approved the club's planning application following a four-hour...
10 Friday AM Reads
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Global Plastics Treaty: Talks collapse without deal to end plastic pollution crisis
Talks to deliver a Global Plastics Treaty ended without agreement this morning, after negotiations ran through the night but failed to break the long-running deadlock between countries that want an ambitious...
Why Simplified UX Will Drive Web3’s Mass Adoption
Abdulfattah Kilani6 min read·12 hours ago--Most people think Web3 is all about cryptocurrencies, airdrops, and speculation. Those activities always dominate the conversation because they’re the most common and the simplest entry points into Web3.Press enter or click to view image in…
How Do Spot Exchanges Ensure Liquidity for Fast Trade Execution?
Anvar N4 min read·6 hours ago--In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency and financial markets, liquidity plays a central role in ensuring that trades are executed quickly and at fair prices. For spot exchanges, where assets are bought and sold for immediate…
INSANELY BULLISH For Crypto: SEC’s Move Could Pump These Projects!
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO REPORTHow The SEC’s Project Crypto Signals a New Dawn for InnovationDominalt11 min read·1 day ago--The SEC used to be crypto’s sworn enemy, stifling innovation at every turn. However, this is…
Why SEI Crypto is the MOST BULLISH Altcoin? ADA & LINK Crypto Whale Buying!
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO NEWSExploring the whale activity driving top altcoinsDominalt9 min read·1 day ago--SEI is quickly becoming one of the most bullish altcoins, with Chainlink close behind as whales are accumulating. Charles Hoskinson…
Believe in Mitosis & The Yield Bonanza
Member-only storyPVMihalache3 min read·2 hours ago--Mitosis is a next-gen DeFi protocol that transforms passive liquidity into programmable, cross-chain assets. It’s a smart liquidity management network focused on capital efficiency, composability, and community governance.When you deposit into Mitosis Vaults, you get derivative…
DeFi 2.0: The Next Evolution in Decentralized Finance
Seraphina blake7 min read·4 hours ago--Press enter or click to view image in full sizeDeFi 2.0: The Next Evolution in Decentralized FinanceDecentralized finance (DeFi) broke open the gates of traditional finance by moving lending, borrowing, trading, and yield generation onto public…
Bitcoin Plunges from Record High of $124,457 to $117,500 in Just 24 Hours: What Triggered the…
Member-only storyJamen Djedet4 min read·9 hours ago--Press enter or click to view image in full sizeArt, courtesy of GrokIn a dramatic turn of events that underscores the relentless volatility of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a sharp decline, dropping…
‘Not cutting through’: Poll reveals damaging disconnect between MPs and businesses on climate action
A breakdown in communication between UK businesses and policymakers on support for climate action has emerged, which is fostering a damaging 'go it alone' mindset among business leaders and threatening...
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Most Likely Doesn’t Pay Taxes
SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite internet company, has received billions of dollars in federal contracts over its more than two-decade existence.But SpaceX has most likely paid little to no federal income taxes since its founding in 2002 and has privately…
Dylan Matthews interviews Anne Krueger
MATTHEWS: What was the debate about import substitution like at this point, in the late 1950s/early 1960s? KRUEGER: The whole profession believed in import substitution. Almost without question. Even Gottfried Haberler, in his lectures in 1959, said that, of course, infant…
Exactly What Is in the Ivy League Deals with the Trump Administration – and How They Compare
Yves here. Trump is engaged in an ideological and even legitimacy war with major US universities, and has scored a lot of wins. As we warned, this is Pol Pot lite, trying to decimate the creation of highly credentialed and trained…
The Passive Income Spectrum and the Greatest Hits of Passive Income
By Dr. Jim Dahle, WCI Founder Passive income is a buzzword(s) that is thrown out frequently in the investing space. It appeals, or at least should appeal, primarily to those who would like to work less (or not at all) while…