EJ Antoni in August: “…an increasing number of indicators say the recession has arrived in the broader economy.”

  • Post category:Finance

trillions of dollars that appear to be economic growth are just borrowing from the future — a debt that will eventually have to be repaid with taxes or inflation. Both will kill growth. Consumers are in the same boat. Families have…

Continue ReadingEJ Antoni in August: “…an increasing number of indicators say the recession has arrived in the broader economy.”

Tuesday: Housing Starts

  • Post category:Finance

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:31:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Trickle to Another Higher LowMortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month. You'd have to go back to August…

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Coffee Break: 2025 Gubernatorial Races Provide Preview for 2026 Mid-term Elections

  • Post category:Finance

The New Jersey and Virginia 2025 gubernatorial elections provide a preview of the 2026 mid-term elections. Virginia looks set to elect its first female governor, with both major parties having nominated a woman. Unfortunately for the GOP, their candidate Lt. Governor…

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Monday assorted links

  • Post category:Finance

1. Arlington travel notes, by Henry Oliver. 2. Class and air conditioning in Germany. 3. Nate Silver Department of Yup. 4. The importance of adaptive prompt behavior. 5. Weapons is an excellent movie (trailer at the link).  There are (very) modest…

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NAHB: “Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level”‘; “Negative territory for 16 consecutive months”

  • Post category:Finance

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor…

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Housing August 18th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 9.9% from 2019 Levels

  • Post category:Finance

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 37.7% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in…

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Links 8/18/2025

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Fans Say Costco’s New Sparkling Protein Drink Is “Revolutionary” Delish And just like that, the CEO of Genius Gourmet, the maker of the “revolutionary” sparkling protein water just deleted his LinkedIn. 👀🫠 https://t.co/1q6jRLxz3l pic.twitter.com/uEIcEytZEl — James Li (@5149jamesli) August 17, 2025…

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Fog of Summit and Neocon Backlash: Lindsey Graham Readies Threat of Designating Russia a Terrorist State

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It would seem fitting to try to pick my way through the press accounts of the Trump-Putin summit, except they are abjectly awful, chock-full of obvious bogosities and spin. Exhibit 1 of the horrorshow of mainstream reporting is the Wall Street…

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Polycentric Status Contests

  • Post category:Finance

As societies become richer, and basic needs are satisfied, zero-sum positional contests gain more prominence, while the regular positivesum benefits of markets subside in the background. As long argued by Hirsch, Frank and others, the institutions for managing resource scarcity and…

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