A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR AI?

The Doomer narratives were wrong. Predicated on a “rapid take-off” to AGI, they predicted that the leading AI model would use its intelligence to self-improve, leaving others in the dust, and quickly achieving a godlike superintelligence.

Instead, we are seeing the opposite: 

— the leading models are clustering around similar performance benchmarks;

— model companies continue to leapfrog each other with their latest versions (which shouldn’t be possible if one achieves rapid take-off);

— models are developing areas of competitive advantage, becoming increasingly specialized in personality, modes, coding and math as opposed to one model becoming all-knowing. 

None of this is to gainsay the progress. We are seeing strong improvement in quality, usability, and price/performance across the top model companies. This is the stuff of great engineering and should be celebrated. It’s just not the stuff of apocalyptic