I wanted to drop a quick note regarding some recent CPI data and tariffs. There is a fundamental misunderstanding (aka political spin) about the impact of tariffs..

It won’t take very much math to put the effect of tariffs into a broader context.

The United States is a ~$30 trillion economy; 70% of this annual activity is consumer spending. And, more than half of that is Services spending.

Imported physical goods account for less than $4 trillion, or approximately 13% of the overall economy.1

A 10-20% tariff/tax on these goods is ~$350B to $700B. Even a 30% tariff on every country in the world is under a trillion dollars. Not nothing, but not recession-inducing by themselves.

The problem is that pile of cash has to come from somewhere, and there are only three places it could come from: The producer/exporters could lower prices to offset it, the consumers can pay