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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the second quarter. I have some concerns, but it looks better than many economists had been anticipating.

Quarterly real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2025:Q2, with the historical average since 1947 (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of real GDP from the previous quarter.

With the new numbers the Econbrowser recession indicator index is up to 11.7%. This primarily reflects the drop in GDP that we observed in the first quarter. The index offers an assessment of where the economy was as of 2025:Q1. Since we started reporting this measure in 2005, Econbrowser reports the index with a one-quarter lag to allow for data revisions and to aid the algorithm in pattern recognition. Though up slightly, the latest value of 11.7% is

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