by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 02:00:00 PM

This is a little stale since this meeting was before the July employment report.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025. Excerpt:

n their discussion of inflation, many participants observed that overall inflation remained somewhat above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal. Participants noted that tariff effects were becoming more apparent in the data, as indicated by recent increases in goods price inflation, while services price inflation had continued to slow. A couple of participants suggested that tariff effects were masking the underlying trend of inflation and, setting aside the tariff effects, inflation was close to target.

With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants generally expected inflation to increase in the near term. …

In their evaluation of the risks and uncertainties associated with the economic outlook, participants judged that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated, though several