Maryland Real Estate in May: Sales Up 46% YoY, Inventory Down 57% YoY

Note: I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy.  From the Maryland Realtors for the entire state: Closed sales in May 2021 […]

Housing Inventory June 14th Update: Inventory Increased Week-over-week

One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021? Tracking inventory will be very important this year. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of June 11th, inventory was at 342 thousand […]

June 13th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

New cases per day (7-day average) is now the lowest since March 26, 2020. KUDOS to the vaccinated! Great job. This data is from the CDC. According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 309,322,545, as of yesterday 308,112,728. Daily: 1.21 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose64.4%64.3%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)143.9143.1≥1601 New Cases […]

FOMC Preview

Expectations are there will be no change to rate policy when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, but that the FOMC will talk about the path of asset purchases. Here are some comments from Merrill Lynch economists:“Based on the FOMC minutes and subsequent speeches, we think Fed Chair Powell will note that […]

June 12th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

As expected the is a correlation between states with high vaccination rates, and low COVID cases.  The top four vaccination states are Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut, with an average of 80.6% vaccinated (percent 18+ at least one dose) and 2.4 new cases per day per 100,000. The bottom four vaccination states are Mississippi, Alabama, […]

Boston Real Estate in May: Sales Up 68% YoY, Inventory Down 20% YoY

Note: Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic.  I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. For Boston (single family and condos): Closed sales in May 2021 were 2,533, up 67.9% from 1,509 in May 2020.Active […]

Schedule for Week of June 13, 2021

The key reports this week are May Retail sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting. —– Monday, June 14th —–No major economic […]

June 11th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

The unvaccinated are still dying at a rate of over 10,000 a month in the US, and many more unvaccinated are suffering with LongCovid symptoms.  And there is a free, safe and effective alternative!This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 306,509,795, as of yesterday 305,687,618. Daily: 0.82 million. […]

Minnesota Real Estate in May: Sales Up 15% YoY, Inventory Down 51% YoY

Note: I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Minnesota Realtors®: Total Residential Units Sold in May 2021 were 7,982, up 14.5% from 6,971 in May 2020. Active Residential Listings in May 2021 were 8,953, down 50.5% from 18,074 in […]

Colorado Real Estate in May: Sales Up 58% YoY, Inventory Down 69% YoY

Note: Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY comparison is easy. I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the Colorado Association of REALTORS® for the entire state: Closed sales for Single […]

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 9.5%

From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP tracking has fallen to 9.5% qoq saar from 11% as we incorporate our forecast for retail sales. 1Q GDP is also tracking slightly lower at 6.2% following trade data this week. [June 11 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +9.5% (qoq ar). [June […]

Atlanta Real Estate in May: Sales Up 36% YoY, Inventory Down 61% YoY

Note: Remember, sales were weak in April and May last year, so the year-over-year comparison is especially strong this month. I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the GAMLS for Atlanta: Total Residential Units Sold in May 2021 were 9,066, up […]

Portland Real Estate in May: Sales Up 62% YoY, Inventory Down 49% YoY

Note: Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic. I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. For Portland, OR: Closed sales in May 2021 were 3,183, up 62.1% from 1,963 in May 2020. Active Listings in […]

June 10th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 305,687,618, as of yesterday 304,753,476. Daily: 0.93 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose64.0%63.9%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)141.6141.0≥1601 New Cases per Day313,99614,311≤5,0002 Hospitalized316,14216,532≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3347354≤502 1 America’s Goal by July 4th,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, […]

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 14% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate is down 14.0% compared to the same week in 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Flat, but Reaches Pandemic HighsU.S. weekly hotel performance remained […]

Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.0 Trillion in Q1

The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2021 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $136.9 trillion during the first quarter of 2021. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $3.2 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.0 […]

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Increased in May

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in May. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal […]

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 376,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending June 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 376,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 385,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 402,500, a decrease of […]

BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in May, Core CPI increased 0.7%

From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest […]

CoreLogic: 1.4 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q1 2021

From CoreLogic: Nationwide Homeowner Equity Gains Hit $1.9 Trillion in Q1 2021, CoreLogic ReportsCoreLogic® … today released the Homeowner Equity Report for the first quarter of 2021. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 19.6% year over year, representing a collective […]

Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims, Q1 Flow of Funds

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 380 thousand from 385 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core […]

June 9th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

Congratulations to the residents of Massachusetts on joining the 80% club! Well done. Go for 90%!!! This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 304,753,476, as of yesterday 303,923,667. Daily: 0.83 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.9%63.8%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)141.0140.4≥1601 New Cases per Day314,14213,483≤5,0002 Hospitalized316,53216,835≤3,0002 Deaths per […]

Houston Real Estate in May: Sales Up 56% YoY, Inventory Down 41% YoY

I’m tracking sales for many local markets.  Note that sales slumped at the beginning of the pandemic, so the year-over-year increase in sales is crazy. From the HAR: Houston Housing Blazes Its Way Through Uncharted Territory in MayHouston area home sales set new records in May as consumers took advantage of historically low interest rates […]

Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift

Demographics are very useful in predicting housing trends.It was 11 years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. On demographics, in 2010, a large cohort had been moving into the 20 to 29 year […]

June 8th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 303,923,667, as of yesterday 302,851,917. Daily: 1.07 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.8%63.7%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)140.4139.7≥1601 New Cases per Day313,39113,472≤5,0002 Hospitalized316,83516,585≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3370328≤502 1 America’s Goal by July 4th,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, […]

North Texas Real Estate in May: Sales Up 30% YoY, Inventory Down 62% YoY

Note: Remember, sales were weak in April and May last year. I’m posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere … inventory is very low. From the NTREIS for North Texas (including Dallas/Ft. Worth): Single Family Homes sold in May 2021 were 10,712, up 27.3% from 8,418 in May […]

Las Vegas Real Estate in May: Sales up 98% YoY, Inventory down 66% YoY

Remember – sales slumped in April and May 2020, so the year-over-year sales comparisons are crazy. The Las Vegas Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices reach new heights while supply stays low; LVR housing statistics for May 2021 A report released Tuesday by Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) shows local home prices continuing to reach new […]

BLS: Job Openings Increased to Record 9.3 Million in April

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings reached a series high of 9.3 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.1 million. Total separations increased to 5.8 million. Within separations, the quits rate reached […]

Trade Deficit Decreased to $68.9 Billion in April

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in April, down $6.1 billion from $75.0 billion in March, revised. April exports were $205.0 billion, $2.3 billion more than March exports. April imports were $273.9 billion, $3.8 […]

Tuesday: Trade Balance, Job Openings

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS RECAP: Sideways to Start The Week, But That’s Still a Victory[W]e did see a bit of weakness today, it was almost too small to count. That’s a victory considering Friday’s gains, but volume and volatility were so low that we arguably haven’t seen a representative sample of […]

Northwest Real Estate in May: Sales up 57% YoY, Inventory down 47% YoY

Remember – sales slumped in April and May 2020, so the year-over-year sales comparisons are crazy. The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported May marked a month of new records for some Northwest MLS market indicatorsMay was a month of record-setting highs and lows for some key housing market indicators tracked by Northwest Multiple Listing Service. […]

June 7th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 302,851,917, as of yesterday 301,638,578. Daily: 1.21 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.7%63.5%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)139.7139.0≥1601 New Cases per Day313,27613,476≤5,0002 Hospitalized316,58517,563≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3378369≤502 1 America’s Goal by July 4th,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for Cases, […]

Housing Inventory June 7th Update: Inventory Increased Week-over-week

One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021? Tracking inventory will be very important this year. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of June 4th, inventory was at 329 thousand […]

June 6th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

Congratulations to the residents of Washington State on joining the 70% club at 70.4%! Go for 80%!!! This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 301,638,578, as of yesterday 300,268,730. Per Day: 1.37 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.5%63.4%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)139.0138.1≥1601 New Cases per Day312,78013,383≤5,0002 Hospitalized317,56318,247≤3,0002 […]

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales Near Record High in May

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2021 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new […]

June 5th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 300,268,730, as of yesterday 299,120,522. Per Day: 1.15 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.4%63.2%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)138.1137.5≥1601 New Cases per Day313,38113,972≤5,0002 Hospitalized318,24718,770≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3346331≤502 1 America’s Goal by July 4th,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for […]

Schedule for Week of June 6, 2021

The key report this week is CPI. Other key reports include April job openings, and the April trade balance. —– Monday, June 7th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, June 8th —–6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May. 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. In March, […]

June 4th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 299,120,522, as of yesterday 297,720,928. Per Day: 1.40 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.2%63.0%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)137.5136.6≥1601 New Cases per Day313,90714,546≤5,0002 Hospitalized318,77019,289≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3331324≤502 1 America’s Goal by July 4th,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for […]

AAR: May Rail Carloads down, Intermodal Up Compared to 2019

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. rail volumes in May 2021 were encouraging. Total originated carloads averaged 241,089 per week, the most since October 2019 and up 30.4% over May 2020.…Meanwhile, intermodal averaged 287,956 originated containers and trailers per week in May 2021. That’s […]

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate is down 4.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (skewed by timing of Memorial Day), but the 4-week average is still down significantly compared […]

Comments on May Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised up slightly.  Leisure and hospitality gained 292 thousand jobs.  In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 2.54 million jobs since February 2020.  So leisure and […]

May Employment Report: 559 Thousand Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in public and private education, and in health care and social assistance.…The change in total […]

Denver Real Estate in May: Sales Up 49% YoY, Active Inventory Down 71%

Sales slumped in April and May 2020, so the year-over-year (YoY) increase is large.   That will likely reverse in June and sales will be down YoY.Note: I’m tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year. From the DMAR: Monthly Indicators, May 2021Total Residential […]

Goldman May Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 750k in May (mom sa) … Following the surprisingly weak April report, we believe the further easing of business restrictions more than offset a moderate drag from labor supply factors and seasonality. … We estimate a three-tenths drop […]

June 3rd COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 297,720,928, as of yesterday 296,912,892. Per Day: 0.81 million. COVID Metrics CurrentYesterdayGoal Percent over 18, One Dose63.0%62.9%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated (millions)136.6136.2≥1601 New Cases per Day314,34915,643≤5,0002 Hospitalized319,28919,674≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3324328≤502 1 America’s Goal by July 4th,2my goals to stop daily posts,37 day average for […]