COVID Nov 25, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

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by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2022 08:08:00 PM NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays.On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data has switched to weekly.Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics  NowWeekAgoGoal New Cases per Week2🚩305,082281,691≤35,0001 Hospitalized221,29321,578≤3,0001 Deaths…

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Case-Shiller, FHFA House Prices Indexes and Conforming Loan Limits will be released on Tuesday

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by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2022 10:38:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller, FHFA House Prices Indexes and Conforming Loan Limits will be released on TuesdayBrief excerpt: Last week, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that median…

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November Vehicle Sales Forecast: Down slightly from October; Up 11% Year-over-year

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by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 02:58:00 PM From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Slow from Prior Month; Still Point to Stronger Q4 (pay content).  Brief excerpt:Although heavily laden with pickups, inventory will rise again in November, lifting the prospects that…

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Lawler: Likely “Dramatic shift” in Household Formation has “Major implications” for 2023

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by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2022 09:17:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Likely "Dramatic shift" in Household Formation has "Major implications" for 2023A brief excerpt: Below is a chart showing the CPS/ASEC estimates of the % of…

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Tuesday: Richmond Fed Mfg

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by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 08:41:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start Holiday-Shortened WeekMortgage rates made their biggest recent move (and their biggest single day move ever) 2 Thursday's ago after a key report…

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MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October”

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by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 04:12:00 PM Note: This is as of October 31st.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total…

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Housing November 21st Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week

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by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2022 08:57:00 AM Active inventory decreased slightly.  Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory)2021: -8.9K2020: -10.5K2019: -14.7KAltos reports…

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Friday: Existing Home Sales

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by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 08:35:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: • At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.39…

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 45% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 18%

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by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 02:10:00 PM Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 12, 2022.…

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October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction

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by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 09:22:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under ConstructionExcerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there…

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October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction

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by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 09:22:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under ConstructionExcerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there…

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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October; California Sales off 37% YoY, Prices Fall; Early Read on October Sales

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by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 03:49:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October; California Sales off 37% YoY, Prices Fall; Early Read on October SalesA brief excerpt: California doesn’t report monthly…

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AIA: Architecture Billings Index “decreases considerably” in October

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by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 12:02:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October,…

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Housing November 14th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week

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by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2022 09:00:00 AM Active inventory decreased slightly.  Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):2022: -3.5K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory)2021: -6.9K2020: -5.1K2019: -6.3KAltos reports…

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November

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by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2022 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November• Housing and Inflation• Homebuilder Comments in October: "As negative as I've seen"• New Home Cancellations…

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Early Q4 GDP Tracking

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by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2022 02:09:00 PM It is early in Q4 ... we will have more estimates next week.From BofA: [Forecast 1.0% in Q4] Overall, the data since our last weekly publication pushed down our 3Q GDP tracking estimate from…

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