by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2024 07:16:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30…
by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2024 03:54:00 PM Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic:…
by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2024 01:52:00 PM Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started…
by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2024 11:22:00 AM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises 3% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 2.9% in August to 220.4 (2000=100) from the revised July reading of…
by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2024 08:22:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Price Growth Slows, Inventory Surges in Florida and TexasBrief excerpt: The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is above…
by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2024 07:13:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Holding Near Long-Term Lows to Start New WeekThe average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since April 2023 last week.…
by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2024 11:30:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in AugustA brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to…
by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2024 09:08:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in AugustWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in August compared to July. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI)…
by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2024 08:17:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 42.4% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of…
by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2024 12:15:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in July; Up 4.4% Year-over-yearA brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.05%…
by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2024 10:52:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% Below 2022 PeakExcerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released…
by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2024 06:50:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: House Price Weekend: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.4% year-over-year in JuneExcerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month…
by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2024 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is the August Consumer Price Index (CPI). ----- Monday, September 9th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, September 10th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism…
by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2024 07:31:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.Note: "Effective May 1,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2024 06:17:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, the 3Q GDP tracking estimate went down three tenths to 2.3% q/q saar while our 2Q GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 3.0% q/q saar since the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2024 12:03:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Catching Up: New Home Sales Increased to 739,000 Annual Rate in JulyBrief excerpt: I'm back from Africa! I’ll be catching up on recent data over the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2024 09:12:00 AM The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were unchanged, and…
by Calculated Risk on 9/06/2024 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2024 07:09:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for August. The consensus is for 164,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2024 03:47:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for August. The consensus is for 164,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decreased to 4.2%.There were 114,000 jobs…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2024 12:16:00 PM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Calculated Risk Returns! Existing Home Sales Increased to 3.95 million SAAR in JulyExcerpt: I'm back from Africa! I’ll be catching up on recent data over the next…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2024 10:04:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.5%, up from 51.4% last month. The employment index decreased to 50.2%, from 51.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute…
by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2024 08:15:00 AM From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 99,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 4.8%Private sector employment increased by 99,000 jobs in August and annual pay was up 4.8…
by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2024 08:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).• At 8:30 AM ET,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2024 05:55:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for August: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 4%, Ending Two Straight Declines (pay site).Growth was solid in August despite the period’s results equaling a 7-month-low SAAR.…
by Calculated Risk on 8/31/2024 08:11:00 AM I'll be out of contact from August 20th until Sept 4th.I'll be back for the August employment report.The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the August…
by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2024 09:09:00 AM CR Note: On vacation. I will return on Thursday, Sept 5th (If I don't get lost!)In December 2006, my friend Doris "Tanta" Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk.From December 2006, until she passed away…
by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2024 11:53:00 AM I'll be out of contact from August 20th until Sept 4th.I'll be back for the August employment report.The key indicators this week include the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2024 09:01:00 AM CR Note: On vacation. I will return on Thursday, Sept 5th (If I don't get lost!)In December 2006, my friend Doris "Tanta" Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk.When some people say that here are…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2024 07:01:00 PM I'll be out of contact until Sept 5th.The key housing reports over the next two weeks are existing home sales on Thursday, New Home sales on Friday, and the Case-Shiller house price index next…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2024 04:31:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2024 10:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July and 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2024 08:12:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 41.4% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2024 06:46:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of August 18, 2024Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 39 (fair value).Oil…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2024 09:12:00 AM From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 10 August The U.S. hotel industry reported positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 August. ...4-10 August 2024 (percentage change from…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2024 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:Click on graph for larger image.• Housing Starts: Single Family Down Year-15% over-year in July; Multi-Family Down 18% YoY• Part 1: Current State of the Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2024 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July New and Existing Home sales.Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.The BLS will release the preliminary employment…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 07:31:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.Note: "Effective May 1,…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 01:33:00 PM From BofA: We initiated our 3Q US GDP tracker with the July retail sales print. The 3Q GDP tracking estimate went up from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar to 2.6% q/q saar.…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 09:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts: Single Family Down Year-15% over-year in July; Multi-Family Down 18% YoYA brief excerpt: Total housing starts in July were below expectations and starts in May…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000. This is 6.8 percent below the revised June estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 07:20:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for July. The consensus is for 1.342 million SAAR, down from 1.353 million SAAR in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 04:30:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.6%…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 12:57:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q2 2024A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Second Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 41 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in July after increasing 0.3 percent in June. Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 08:40:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.0% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.7 percent from July 2023.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2024 07:22:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 238 thousand initial claims,…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2024 02:58:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased…
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