by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2025 10:17:00 AM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.Note: "Effective May 1,…

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2025 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:Click on graph for larger image.• Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in…

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are December CPI, retail sales, and housing starts.For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. ----- Monday,…

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 04:05:00 PM A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. ... The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting…

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 01:02:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved down three tenths to 1.8% q/q saar. The final estimate of 3Q GDP came in at 3.1% q/q saar, close…

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 09:47:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased,…

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up…

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 07:46:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment…

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 11:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDPA brief excerpt: Two years ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as…

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:55:00 AM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 160,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.There were 227,000…

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2025 08:30:00 AM This was released yesterday (due to National Day of Mourning). The DOL reported: In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 08:12:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • The US NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed in observance of a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.•…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 04:15:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 10% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 10.2% in December to 212.0 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 02:38:00 PM From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17–18, 2024. Excerpt:With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 01:02:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in DecemberA brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 09:58:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in DecemberWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in December compared to November. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI)…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 08:15:00 AM From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December“The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both…

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the…

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2025 08:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15…

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2025 04:49:00 PM Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic:…

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2025 01:48:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-yearBrief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents.Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply…

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2025 12:28:00 PM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.1%, up from 52.1% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.4%, from 51.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute…

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2025 10:00:00 AM From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported…

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2025 08:30:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in November,…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 08:11:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Barely Budge to Start New WeekThe bond market and interest rates have arrived at the first full week of the new year almost exactly where…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 04:55:00 PM Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record HighFrom Moody’s Analytics economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 01:55:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand.Heavy truck sales really collapsed during…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 11:07:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record HighA brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock,…

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.4% week-over-week.Inventory will continue to decline seasonally and probably bottom in late January or February.   The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory…

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2025 08:04:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025• Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?• Question #1 for 2025: How much will…

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2025 12:39:00 PM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted…

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2025 10:27:00 AM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted…

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2025 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:Click on graph for larger image.• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a…

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit and November Job Openings. ----- Monday, January 6th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. -----…

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 09:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.Note: "Effective May 1,…

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 06:18:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site).December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a…

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 02:01:00 PM From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]emphasis addedAnd from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow…

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 10:37:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 PeakExcerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index…

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and…

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).Friday: • At 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for…

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 12:43:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-yearA brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month…

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 10:00:00 AM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of…

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 21.9 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage…

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2025 08:18:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday).Thursday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release two…

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2025 12:40:00 PM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted…

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2024 05:07:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in NovemberExcerpt: Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, BillSingle-family and multi-family serious delinquencies increased…

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2024 01:13:00 PM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted…

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2024 09:00:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities…

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2024 08:21:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some HopeLast week wasn't great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a…