by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 02:00:00 PM This is a little stale since this meeting was before the July employment report.From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025. Excerpt:n their discussion of inflation, many participants observed…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 11:34:00 AM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.From the AIA: ABI July 2025: Business at architecture firms remains softThe AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI)…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 10:30:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight MonthA brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 10:30:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight MonthA brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 07:51:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• During the…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 01:11:00 PM This is something I check occasionally.The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.5% (+4.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2025 as compared with April 2024. Travel for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 09:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in JulyA brief excerpt: Total housing starts in July were well above expectations and starts in May and…
by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:31:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Trickle to Another Higher LowMortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month. You'd have to go back to August…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 03:28:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 12:26:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in JulyA brief excerpt: First, here are some comments from the Houston Association of REALTORS®: HOUSTON HOME PRICES EASE IN…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 37.7% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 07:16:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025Monday: • At 10:00 AM ET, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM From Goldman: On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. ----- Monday, August 18th -----…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in JulyA brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Early Read on Existing Home Sales in JulyBased on publicly available…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:45:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 06:21:00 PM From First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming Housing Market Returning to Reality as National Price Growth Cools Further in July, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report Highlights• Annual…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 03:15:00 PM From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 9 August The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 9 August. ...3-9 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 12:26:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Second Quarter of 2025The delinquency rate for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 10:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 10:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 07:30:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 01:19:00 PM Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time.The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948.The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 09:50:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in JulyA brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 02:13:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 12:03:00 PM The BLS reported earlier today: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 316.349 (1982-84=100). For the…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 08:51:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation:The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch. Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the YoY price…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation ReportThe average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 01:50:00 PM Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble - and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to CoolBrief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to SlowHere is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.8% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 37.6% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21% from the seasonal low by this week in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 06:23:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of August 10, 2025Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are up 54 (fair value).Oil…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2025 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:Click on graph for larger image.• Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan…
by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July CPI and Retail Sales.For manufacturing, the August NY Fed survey, and the July Industrial Production report will be released. ----- Monday, August 11th ----- No major economic…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 04:06:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail volumes are holding up, indicating goods movement remains resilient despite the headwinds. Looking ahead, though, sustained pressure…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 12:37:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices.SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 11:41:00 AM From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 3Q GDP tracker ... [August 8th comment]emphasis addedFrom Goldman: [W]e boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 08:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in JulyA brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals…
by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2025 08:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in JulyA brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals…
by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 10:29:00 AM From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 August The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 August. ...27 July through 2 August 2025 (percentage…
by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2025 09:15:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in JulyWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI)…
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