by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2023 06:12:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of September 24, 2023Monday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed…
by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2023 09:51:00 AM For fun:Through August 2023, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 32 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 8th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).The UAW strike…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2023 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:• August Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August • Lawler: Early…
by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2023 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are August New Home sales, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for August, and Case-Shiller house prices for July.For manufacturing, the Richmond, Dallas and Kansas…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2023 07:17:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2023 01:43:00 PM From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong, but Slowing Improvement Suggests Delinquencies May Be Nearing Cycle Lows • At 3.17%, the U.S. delinquency rate improved by 4 basis points in…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2023 12:59:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2023. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased…
by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2023 09:56:00 AM From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt:The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2023 08:15:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump up to 23-Year HighsBetween the data and the overnight momentum in overseas markets, bonds are at their weakest levels in years. Mortgage-backed securities (the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2023 05:23:00 PM From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 September U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 September. ...10-16 September 2023 (percentage change from comparable week…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2023 02:00:00 PM Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Sabrina Speianu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 16, 2023• Active inventory declined, with…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2023 10:49:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.04 million SAAR in August; Median Prices Increased 3.9% YoY in AugustExcerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)The fourth graph shows…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2023 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 0.7% in AugustExisting-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged…
by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2023 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2023 08:36:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 thousand initial claims,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2023 02:00:00 PM Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed…
by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2023 11:46:00 AM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Sees Softening Business Conditions in August The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) eased…
by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2023 09:41:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in AugustA brief excerpt: Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release August existing home sales tomorrow,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2023 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for…
by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2023 07:47:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• During the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2023 01:32:00 PM Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably…
by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2023 09:23:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: August Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under ConstructionExcerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023…
by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2023 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,283,000. This is 11.3 percent below the revised July estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2023 08:10:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged After Mid-Day ImprovementsThe average lender was only 0.02% higher than Friday this morning, and the improvement brought them 0.01% lower than Friday. These…
by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2023 04:07:00 PM From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.33% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased…
by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2023 02:58:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August and Some New Household/Housing Stock DataA brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS…
by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2023 02:01:00 PM Note: I didn't update this last week.The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The…
by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2023 10:05:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 45, down from 50 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good…
by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2023 08:21:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 15th, inventory was at 519 thousand (7-day average),…
by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2023 08:11:00 AM Most analysts expect there will be no change to FOMC policy at this meeting, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5‑1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.On the meeting this week from BofA:"We…
by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2023 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:• Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September • Part 2: Current State of the Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2023 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are August Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected. ----- Monday, September 18th ----- 10:00 AM: The September NAHB…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2023 07:58:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2023 03:04:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in AugustA brief excerpt: Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release August existing home sales next…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2023 11:15:00 AM From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last report pushed our 3Q US GDP tracking down two-tenths to 2.9% q/q saar and 2Q is down two-tenths as well to 2.3%. [Sept 15th estimate]emphasis…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2023 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August, and manufacturing output inched up 0.1 percent. The August reading for manufacturing was held back by a drop of…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2023 07:36:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2023 02:55:00 PM Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 9, 2023• Active inventory declined, with…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2023 12:00:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-SeptemberA brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2023 08:35:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.5 percent from August 2022.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2023 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending September 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2023 08:00:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 212 thousand initial claims,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2023 02:43:00 PM The BLS reported on this morning: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.4 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 301.551 (1982-84=100). For…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2023 11:36:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-SeptemberA brief excerpt: Interestingly, new home inventory is close to a record percentage of total inventory.…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2023 08:55:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation:The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned earlier when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This has fallen sharply and is…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2023 08:32:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2023 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for…
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2023 07:51:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump HigherMortgage rates are noticeably higher to start the new week for most lenders although some lenders increased their costs nearly as much on Friday.…
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2023 02:31:00 PM Tomorrow the BLS will release inflation data for August. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.6%…
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2023 10:08:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in AugustA brief excerpt: This is the second look at local markets in August. I’m tracking a sample of about…
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