Q4 GDP Forecasts

Most economists are revisiting their Q4 forecasts, and many are not releasing weekly updates.  In their previous forecasts, many assumed some additional disaster relief in Q4, and many underestimated the current surge in COVID. Depending on further delays in disaster relief, and the impact of the current COVID surge, we might see some significant Q4 […]

BLS: October Unemployment rates down in 37 States, Higher in 8 States

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in October in 37 states and the District of Columbia, higher in 8 states, and stable in 5 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-seven states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and three […]

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 90, up from 85 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Sales Growth Lifts Builder Confidence to New Record HighIn another sign that housing continues to lead […]

Industrial Production Increased 1.1 Percent in October; 5.6% Below Pre-Crisis Level

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity UtilizationIndustrial production rose 1.1 percent in October. The index has recovered much of its 16.5 percent decline from February to April, but output in October was still 5.6 percent lower than its pre-pandemic February level. After edging up 0.1 percent in September, manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in […]

Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3 percent from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.7 percent from October 2019. From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were […]

Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.   IMPORTANT: Be safe now – if all goes well, we could all be vaccinated by Q2 2021. —– Airlines: Transportation Security Administration —–The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. Click on graph for […]