One day after Goldman Sachs finally capitulated on its call for four rate hikes next year (one hike more than the Fed’s dot plot, and four more than the not-quite-one hike that futures markets are currently pricing), Paul Tudor Jones, the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, has one-upped the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius (who […]

by Bill McBride on 12/10/2018 12:15:00 PM

A lot can change in less than two months: back on October 18, when the initial market drop seemed like just another dip-buying opportunity, JPM predicted that the odds of a recession in 1 year were a modest 27.6%, rising to 60% if the forecast period is extended to two years. Well not anymore, because […]

Authored by Kenneth Rogoff via Project Syndicate, The right way to think about cryptocurrency coins is as lottery tickets that pay off in a dystopian future where they are used in rogue and failed states, or perhaps in countries where citizens have already lost all semblance of privacy. That means that cryptocurrencies are not entirely […]

Accused Russian spy Maria Butina wants to change her plea to guilty according to a Monday filing with a DC Court.  Butina, who was arrested in July and remains in custody, is accused of working with South Dakota Republican Paul Erickson as a Kremlin spy.  Erickson, who has strong ties to both the National Rifle […]

Senior Communist Party officials let their frustration over the arrest and likely extradition of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou be known over the weekend during meetings with the American and Canadian ambassadors to Beijing where they threatened “severe consequences” if Meng isn’t released. But these threats haven’t blunted the Canadian government’s determination to prosecute Meng for […]

All the major US equity indices are now underwater for the year as Nasdaq finally joined the S&P, Dow, Small Caps, and Trannies… Overnight saw early derisking on a multitude of factors, but the machines gently levitated futures into the open, before flushing at the open (not helped by AAPL)… And that has driven Nasdaq […]

After the ubiquitous ramp into the US cash market open, things have gone a little pear-shaped, with stocks tumbling back below last week’s lows and pushing critical 2018 support levels. As BMO’s Russ Visch writes, It’s a “make or break” day for the S&P 500, which closed right at key support at its October/November lows […]

Having correctly predicted (and explained) the broader market dump last week, and – more importantly – accurately defining the key CTA selloff levels much to the embarrassment of some of his peers who keep making wrong calls and, unable to make an accurate forecast for month instead chose to blame “fake news”, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott […]

Authored by Irina Slav for Oilprice.com, The U.S. Geological Survey has revised the technically recoverable reserves in the Wolfcamp Basin, in the Permian shale play, to 46.3 billion barrels of crude and 281 trillion cu ft of natural gas. That’s up from 20 billion barrels of crude and 16 trillion cu ft of gas in recoverable reserves […]

Update 2: After May and Corbyn exchanged vitriol soaked comments (with Corbyn accusing May of “losing control” and May accusing Corbyn of opportunistically attacking her despite having no workable alternatives), the pound has broken below 1.26 and is nearing 1.25… The anxieties surrounding May’s decision to delay the vote have apparently crossed the Atlantic and […]

Paul Tudor Jones said Monday that a new exchange-traded fund using JUST Capital’s Ranking of companies doing right by the American people is tracking the performance of the S&P 500 since its launch in June. Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin that the Goldman Sachs JUST fund is down about […]

by Bill McBride on 12/10/2018 10:08:00 AM

By Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is currently writing a book about textile artisans. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Bernie Sanders, and Dick Durbin last week sent a letter to John Kelly, acting inspector general (IG) of the Department of Homeland Security, asking him to expand […]

Here’s the stock market from three perspectives Percentage change in the S&P 500 %+30+20+100-10-20Since Trump’s inauguration2018 to dateSince S&P’s peak20172018Correction territory Percentage change in the S&P 500 %+30+20+100-10-20Since Trump’s inauguration2018 to dateSince S&P’s peak20172018Correction territory Percentage change in the S&P 500 %+30+20+100-10-20Since Trump’s inauguration2018 to dateSince S&P’s peak20172018Correction territory Source: Refinitiv The S&P 500-stock index […]

The Federal Reserve needs to stop increasing interest rates or risk putting the U.S. economy into a recession, former Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore told CNBC on Monday. “The only thing that really worries me about the economy right now is what the Fed is doing,” said Moore, co-author with conservative economist Art Laffer of […]

Don’t Like Trump? Your Financial Analysis Might Be BiasedPartisanship should have no place in a corporate-credit rating. A new study says it does.Bloomberg, December 3, 2018 The dangers of political bias for investors has long been one of my favorite rants. Politics is tribal, opinionated and typically one-sided. These are emotional hot buttons that lead to […]

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones says the stock market’s wild ride will continue in 2019. “I think we’re going to see a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility,” Jones told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin in a “Squawk Box” interview on Monday. “It’s really easy to say ‘I’m really […]

by Bill McBride on 12/10/2018 08:00:00 AM

My back-to-work morning train reads: • Bogle: RIAs Are the Future; Trading Is Investors’ Enemy (ThinkAdvisor)• Lessons From the Bernie Madoff Fraud, 10 Years Later (Barron’s) see also Madoff’s Victims Are Close To Getting Their $19 Billion Back (Bloomberg)• We’re No Longer in the Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline. (New York Magazine)• 2018 wasn’t a complete horror show. Here are […]

Ivey Business School at Western University (London Ontario, Canada) is looking for a Post doctoral Research Fellow to join our newly established CryptoEconomics Lab: http://cryptoeconomics-lab.com The focus of the position is on conducting foundational research in the emerging discipline of cryptoeconomics, which examines the protocols and incentives that govern the production, distribution, and consumption of digital […]

This entry was posted in Guest Post, Links on December 10, 2018 by Jerri-Lynn Scofield.

The Opening Bell is powered by The Water Coolest. (Confused? Don’t worry, we’ve made you a new friend.) Puff, puff, path to diversification [The Water Coolest] Altria plans to shell out $1.8B for a 45% stake in Cronos, a Canada-based cannabinoid company. Or for those less in tune with the “kids these days,” Cronos is a Canadian […]