Paul Tudor Jones: Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates Next Year

One day after Goldman Sachs finally capitulated on its call for four rate hikes next year (one hike more than the Fed’s dot plot, and four more than the not-quite-one hike that futures markets are currently pricing), Paul Tudor Jones, the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, has one-upped the bank’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius (who […]

Fidelity dominates money-market industry as assets grow to $629 billion

Fidelity Investments is dominating a business that is thriving even as stocks and bonds struggle. Fidelity’s money-market assets grew to $629 billion as of Oct. 31 — nearly twice as much as its closest rival, Vanguard Group, according to Crane Data. The Boston-based fund company has added more than $50 billion this year, mostly from […]

Recession Odds Soar To 70% In Two Years, According To JPMorgan

A lot can change in less than two months: back on October 18, when the initial market drop seemed like just another dip-buying opportunity, JPM predicted that the odds of a recession in 1 year were a modest 27.6%, rising to 60% if the forecast period is extended to two years. Well not anymore, because […]

Stocks extend sell-off on growth and Brexit worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A gauge of global equities stumbled on Monday, putting it on track for its fifth straight daily decline, as losses in Europe and Asia extended to Wall Street on new signs the U.S.-China trade spat was impacting world economic growth. Further denting sentiment was confusion stemming from the vote by Britain’s […]

Stocks Fall Again as Delayed Brexit Vote Adds to Growing Global Uncertainty

Stocks slid again on Monday, as investors faced more evidence of a slowdown in global growth and a delayed vote on Britain’s planned exit from the European Union threatened to throw the Brexit process into disarray. Parliament had been expected to vote on Tuesday on the exit agreement, but the prospect of a defeat prompted […]

Avianca seeks to cut Airbus order as much as half: CEO

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Airline Avianca Holdings SA AVT_p.CN will begin negotiations with Airbus (AIR.PA) to reduce the 100 planes it had agreed to purchase in a 2015 deal to as few as 50, the chief executive of the Latin American company said. FILE PHOTO: Hernan Rincon, executive president and CEO of AVIANCA Holdings S.A., speaks […]

Ken Rogoff: Bitcoin & Betting On Dystopia

Authored by Kenneth Rogoff via Project Syndicate, The right way to think about cryptocurrency coins is as lottery tickets that pay off in a dystopian future where they are used in rogue and failed states, or perhaps in countries where citizens have already lost all semblance of privacy. That means that cryptocurrencies are not entirely […]

Wall Street drops over 1 percent on growth fears, Brexit uncertainty

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 10, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid (Reuters) – U.S. stocks deepened losses on Monday and the benchmark S&P 500 hit its lowest since April 4, with financial stocks leading the declines, as fears over global growth, the China-U.S. trade war […]

Qualcomm wins preliminary China import ruling against some iPhone models

(Reuters) – Chip supplier Qualcomm Inc on Monday said it had won a preliminary order from a Chinese court banning the importation and sale of several Apple Inc iPhone models in China due to patent violations, though Apple said its phones remain available in the country. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Qualcomm is seen during […]

Alleged Russian Honeypot Spy Changes Plea To Guilty 

Accused Russian spy Maria Butina wants to change her plea to guilty according to a Monday filing with a DC Court.  Butina, who was arrested in July and remains in custody, is accused of working with South Dakota Republican Paul Erickson as a Kremlin spy.  Erickson, who has strong ties to both the National Rifle […]

Ford in talks with German workers about Saarlouis job cuts

FILE PHOTO: The Ford logo at the New York Auto Show in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 29, 2018. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Ford (F.N) said on Monday it had started negotiations with German worker representatives about potential job cuts at its Saarlouis plant following a decision […]

Huawei CFO's Lawyers Cite $12 Million Home, Cancer Complications As Conditions For Bail

Senior Communist Party officials let their frustration over the arrest and likely extradition of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou be known over the weekend during meetings with the American and Canadian ambassadors to Beijing where they threatened “severe consequences” if Meng isn’t released. But these threats haven’t blunted the Canadian government’s determination to prosecute Meng for […]

Verizon says to shed 10,400 jobs by mid next year

The Verizon logo is seen on the side of a truck in New York City, U.S., October 13, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid (Reuters) – Verizon Communications Inc said on Monday that about 10,400 employees will be leaving the U.S. wireless carrier by mid next year as part of the company’s voluntary separation program. The New York-based […]

Nasdaq Plunges Into Red For 2018 – Worst Year In A Decade

All the major US equity indices are now underwater for the year as Nasdaq finally joined the S&P, Dow, Small Caps, and Trannies… Overnight saw early derisking on a multitude of factors, but the machines gently levitated futures into the open, before flushing at the open (not helped by AAPL)… And that has driven Nasdaq […]

A younger spouse can lower required minimum distributions

Here’s one I haven’t heard before. I received a question from a financial adviser wondering if he could help his client reduce his required minimum distribution burden and the resulting tax on his $2 million individual retirement account by using the Joint Life and Last Survivor Expectancy Table (IRS Publication 590-B, Table II). The client […]

“It's Make Or Break Day” For The S&P (& It Just Broke Key Support)

After the ubiquitous ramp into the US cash market open, things have gone a little pear-shaped, with stocks tumbling back below last week’s lows and pushing critical 2018 support levels. As BMO’s Russ Visch writes, It’s a “make or break” day for the S&P 500, which closed right at key support at its October/November lows […]

Permian Oil Reserves May Be Twice As Big As We Thought

Authored by Irina Slav for, The U.S. Geological Survey has revised the technically recoverable reserves in the Wolfcamp Basin, in the Permian shale play, to 46.3 billion barrels of crude and 281 trillion cu ft of natural gas. That’s up from 20 billion barrels of crude and 16 trillion cu ft of gas in recoverable reserves […]

Cable Crashes As May Abandons Brexit Vote, Steps Up No-Deal Preparations

Update 2: After May and Corbyn exchanged vitriol soaked comments (with Corbyn accusing May of “losing control” and May accusing Corbyn of opportunistically attacking her despite having no workable alternatives), the pound has broken below 1.26 and is nearing 1.25… The anxieties surrounding May’s decision to delay the vote have apparently crossed the Atlantic and […]

GoPro to move U.S.-bound camera production out of China

FILE PHOTO: A GoPro camera is seen on a skier’s helmet as he rides down the slopes in the ski resort of Meribel, French Alps, January 7, 2014. REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot/File Photo (Reuters) – GoPro Inc (GPRO.O) on Monday took the first steps to move most of its U.S.-bound camera production out of China by the […]

Carlos Ghosn, Ex-Nissan Chief, and Nissan Are Charged With Misstating His Pay

TOKYO — Prosecutors in Japan on Monday indicted Carlos Ghosn, the former chairman of Nissan Motor, and the auto company itself on charges that they had violated financial laws by underreporting Mr. Ghosn’s compensation. The indictment came three weeks after the Japanese authorities arrested Mr. Ghosn, who was once among the auto industry’s most respected […]

Huawei CFO bail hearing to resume in Canada as Beijing steps up pressure

TORONTO/BEIJING (Reuters) – A top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies is due back in a Canadian court on Monday where she will fight for her freedom with the help of pressure from Beijing against prosecutors’ claims she cannot be trusted. Huawei [HWT.UL] Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, 46, was arrested by Canadian authorities […]

The R Word

You better hope interest rates didn’t just peak for the cycle with the 10-year failing at 3.05%. So says Ari Wald (technician at OpCo), whose chart this weekend looks at 10-year treasury yield breakdowns as a leading (or coincident) indicator for major turning points in the S&P 500 / economy. Here’s Ari: Looking back at […]

Stocks Have Wiped Out Their Gains for the Year. But if You Step Back, They’re Still Riding High.

Here’s the stock market from three perspectives Percentage change in the S&P 500 %+30+20+100-10-20Since Trump’s inauguration2018 to dateSince S&P’s peak20172018Correction territory Percentage change in the S&P 500 %+30+20+100-10-20Since Trump’s inauguration2018 to dateSince S&P’s peak20172018Correction territory Percentage change in the S&P 500 %+30+20+100-10-20Since Trump’s inauguration2018 to dateSince S&P’s peak20172018Correction territory Source: Refinitiv The S&P 500-stock index […]

Nutella maker Ferrero in race to buy Campbell's international business: sources

Tins of Campbell’s Tomato Soup are seen on a supermarket shelf in Seattle, Washington, U.S. February 10, 2017. REUTERS/Chris Helgren MILAN (Reuters) – Ferrero SpA is interested in buying Campbell Soup Co’s (CPB.N) international business, which includes biscuit brand Arnott’s, two sources close to the matter said on Monday. The Italian group based in the […]

What Happens When 25,000 Amazon Workers Flush Toilets?

Amazon says its new headquarters in Long Island City, Queens, will bring 25,000 jobs. It will also bring more crowds, more noise and, yes, more toilet flushing. It might seem mundane, but what happens in the bathroom matters: New York, for all its modern conveniences, sits atop a century-old sewage system used by more people […]

Partisan Bias of Financial Analysts

Don’t Like Trump? Your Financial Analysis Might Be BiasedPartisanship should have no place in a corporate-credit rating. A new study says it does.Bloomberg, December 3, 2018 The dangers of political bias for investors has long been one of my favorite rants. Politics is tribal, opinionated and typically one-sided. These are emotional hot buttons that lead to […]

You can’t deduct IRA losses any more

As of 2018, it is no longer possible to deduct IRA losses from your income. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2018 eliminated this and many other miscellaneous itemized deductions. Prior to 2018, if you had losses in your IRA with non-deductible contributions, you could cash out the entire IRA and deduct the loss […]

10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train reads: • Bogle: RIAs Are the Future; Trading Is Investors’ Enemy (ThinkAdvisor)• Lessons From the Bernie Madoff Fraud, 10 Years Later (Barron’s) see also Madoff’s Victims Are Close To Getting Their $19 Billion Back (Bloomberg)• We’re No Longer in the Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline. (New York Magazine)• 2018 wasn’t a complete horror show. Here are […]


I’ll have more thoughts on this later. Here’s the lead markets story at the Journal today: Going back to the 1980s, the S&P 500 has typically rebounded after posting a weekly loss, such as the punishing setback it suffered last week. This year, that “buy-the-dip” trend has broken apart. The broad index has fallen an […]

DealBook Briefing: Guess Who Said ‘I Do Not Respect the S.E.C.’?

Good Monday. Want this by email? Sign up here. Elon Musk is at it again How seriously is Tesla’s C.E.O. taking his recent tussle with the S.E.C.? Not too seriously, if his appearance on CBS’s “60 Minutes” last night is any indication. Mr. Musk’s tweets are supposed to be vetted. He and Tesla recently reached […]

The Cryptoeconomics Lab at Ivey

Ivey Business School at Western University (London Ontario, Canada) is looking for a Post doctoral Research Fellow to join our newly established CryptoEconomics Lab: The focus of the position is on conducting foundational research in the emerging discipline of cryptoeconomics, which examines the protocols and incentives that govern the production, distribution, and consumption of digital […]

Understanding FPA National’s “OneFPA Network” Plan To Dissolve And Consolidate Its Own Chapters

Executive Summary It’s no secret that the Financial Planning Association has struggled for many years with stagnant membership amidst an increasingly difficult and competitive landscape for membership associations given both the rise of social media (and more online platforms for people to connect outside of traditional networking and professional associations) and intra-industry competition from other […]

Planning lessons every small town can learn from disaster

Looking down on Kennett Township, PA, from the fire truck bucket. What if a disaster happened here? What would be the best plan while rebuilding? Note: This week and next week, I’m pleased to share these guest posts by Whitney Hoffman. She’s sharing some thoughts about being ready for and recovering from disasters. -Becky Guest […]

Opening Bell 12.10.18

The Opening Bell is powered by The Water Coolest. (Confused? Don’t worry, we’ve made you a new friend.) Puff, puff, path to diversification [The Water Coolest] Altria plans to shell out $1.8B for a 45% stake in Cronos, a Canada-based cannabinoid company. Or for those less in tune with the “kids these days,” Cronos is a Canadian […]

In a tight labor market, companies bet big on five-year rewards

NEW YORK (Reuters) – In the old days, longtime employees in the United States were honored with a gold watch after 30 years or so at a company. FILE PHOTO: A woman is seen in silhouette walking through Grand Central Station in New York September 25, 2014. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton Well, they have got nothing on […]