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Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data indicating a slowdown.

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll Employment, July release (bold black, right log scale), implied Bloomberg consensus (gray +, right log scale), June release (teal, right log scale), Private NFP, July release (blue, left hand log scale), implied Bloomberg consensus (blue +, left hand log scale), June release (tan, left hand log scale), all in 000’s, s.a. Implied Bloomberg estimates calculated by iterating consensus change on top of June release figures. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

While one observation doesn’t make a trend (+73K consensus vs. +106K for NFP), three observations might. We don’t make judgments on the basis of one preliminary observation because the Mean Absolute Revision going from first to third revision over the 2022-24 period is about 40K. Hence, it’s very

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