Bill McBride’s assessment here.

In early April, I went on recession watch, but I’m still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.

In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy. However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching – especially immigration.

Yesterday, Mark Zandi was stating his case for being wary:

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said the U.S. economy is “on the precipice of recession,” citing indicators from last week’s economic data releases.

In a social media post Monday, Zandi pointed to stagnant consumer spending, contracting construction and manufacturing sectors and projected employment declines.

Rising inflation makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to provide economic stimulus, the economist said

While unemployment remains low, Zandi attributed