by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM

The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. 

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.33% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.08% (vs. +3.0% consensus). We expect a 0.27% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) but lower energy prices (-0.6%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.31% increase in core PCE in July.

Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4%. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further

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