by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 01:50:00 PM

Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble – and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a recession, and by the end of 2007 the housing bust causing a financial crisis was becoming obvious.

Here is an article from the WSJ in 2007 quoting a crazy blogger: How High Will Subprime Losses Go?

Back in the U.S., the Calculated Risk blog sidestepped the colorful language and went straight for the big number: “The losses for the lenders and investors might well be over $1 trillion.” Many people thought I was crazy. But losses for lenders and financial institutions ended up over $1 trillion.
Then in 2013 I wrote that there will be another crisis someday: “Each new generation of Wall Street wizards figures out a new way