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Yves here. This VoxEU column, originally titled Recent patterns in global risk behaviour in financial markets, seeks to measure a “safe-haven factor” for the dollar and ascertain how it has operated over time and since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock and his subsequent trade flip-flopping. What this analysis finds is contrary to the impression many get, particularly from geopolitically-minded YouTubers: that the dent to dollar credibility normalized in May and has been pretty stable since then.

I would have been happier if this analysis had gone back to the 1970s, a period of serious and sustained dollar weakness. Then, the Carter Administration even floated a bond issue in Deutsche marks to get a better rate. From the New York Times in 1978:

The United States; borrowed West German marks today for use in currency markets to support the international value of the dollar.

It was the first public borrowing by

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