Finance
Remember those warnings of an economic apocalypse in Seattle as the minimum wage was raised up to $15-16 per hour? Mark J. Perry was at the forefront of this (faulty) thesis. Having to teach Contemporary Public Affairs this semester, I was…
Ever since debt was invented in ancient Sumer, there have probably been people enriching themselves through bad investments. The trick is to make these investments using other people’s money.Suppose, for example, that a wheeler-dealer uses borrowed funds to make risky investments…
by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2023 02:45:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-yearA brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents…
Canada is pushing the United States and other major economies to follow through on pledges to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies, which have soared despite the growing threat of climate change. Such subsidies hit records last year, according to several…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Kashmir Nuthatch, Yusmarg Budgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India. “Calls from the male of a pair of birds, responding to playback of Collared Owlet, along with a large group of tits and…
Despite some views that GDP growth would be revised downward substantially (see discussion here), the recent trajectory of GDP and GDO was largely unchanged (even if the level over the period 2019 onward was). A lot of the revisions are summarized…
by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2023 01:00:00 PM Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 23, 2023• Active inventory declined, with…
1. Presale link for the new Coleman Hughes book. 2. The Fish and Wildlife Service constraint on SpaceX. 3. “Proprietor Israel Mizrahi is quite familiar with the shocked look on your face.” 4. Branko here is speaking more truth than he…
Hailsondes Launch Into Thunderstorms to Sound Them Out SpectrumIEEE (Chuck L) #COVID-19 From GM, who identified the speaker as Oh boy.This video is stunning. I'm a priest, so I'm an expert in wishful thinking. This guy… he's living in fantasy land.…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Lo Toney, Plexo Capital founding managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Meta's new product announcement, the state of A.I. and tech landscape, and more. 05:21 2 hours…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss 'Stand With Crypto Day', the state of the crypto industry, regulatory framework, Coinbase's international expansion, and more. 11:56 2…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss 'Stand With Crypto Day', the state of the crypto industry, regulatory framework, Coinbase's international expansion, and more. 07:18 3…
by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2023 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Tumbled 7.1% in August Pending home sales slid 7.1% in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions posted monthly losses and year-over-year declines…
Yves here. While there is a point where increases in oil prices in not too long a time reduce oil prices by dampening demand, and that level in recent years has been depicted at $100 a barrel, no one knows exactly…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Jack Kokko, AlphaSense founder and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the company, now valued at $2.5 billion after announcing a $150 million Series E…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Liz Young, SoFi head of investment strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why she believes there are signs of weakness quietly creeping into the…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email House Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest spending negotiations on Congress, whether an agreement can be reached before Saturday's deadline, the odds…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations amid rising tensions, China's economic woes and real estate crisis,…
I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2023 08:43:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive UpdateReal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter…
by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2023 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Les Brun, Ariel Alternatives CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the private equity market, fundraising outlook for 2024, the impact of higher rates and recession…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Mariana Alfaro, The Washington Post political reporter, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the second Republican primary debate, whether any of the seven GOP presidential candidates stood out enough…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Ashish Shah, Goldman Sachs Asset Management CIO of public investing, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes investors should look globally for opportunities,…
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ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Matt Miskin, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes there are parts of the market that…
ShareShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email Coinbase senior advisor and former U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest negotiations on Capitol Hill, whether a deal can be reached before…
This paper describes the response of the economy to large shocks in a nonlinear production network. A sector’s tail centrality, measures how a large negative shock transmits to GDP – i.e. the systemic risk of the sector. Tail centrality is theoretically…
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Achieve is the excellent course management system for our textbook, Modern Principles. With Achieve, teachers can assign videos, homework, exercises and so forth. One advantage of online education is that students can engage with interactive exercises that give them immediate feedback.…
Before Fat Bear Week, Don’t Forget the Corpulent Cubs Competing in Fat Bear Junior Smithsonian If earthworms were a country, they’d be the world’s fourth largest producer of grain Nature Under a Hellish Ocean Habitat, Bizarre Animals Are Lurking NYT Dealmaking…
My morning train reads: • How the Writers Deal Got Done: Inside the Room: From the Chris Keyser-CEO calls that brought them back to the table to the ask that almost derailed the deal, a play-by-play of the final negotiations. (Hollywood…
Even though yours truly is not an antitrust expert, one thing that expert commentators have discussed over the years is the way case law has made it increasingly difficult to pursue antitrust cases against parties who commonsensically have abused their market…
Yves here. It indeed would be nice if the government would intervene to assist people who will be displaced by housing loss in areas directly hit by climate change damage or effectively forced out via increases in home insurance prices. But…
From a new NBER working paper: Infrastructure costs in the United States are high and rising. The procurement process is one potential cost driver. In this paper we conduct a survey of procurement practices across the 50 states. We survey both…
I won’t double indent, here is the email: ““Whatever It Is, I’m Against It,” Resistance to Change in Higher Education (Harvard Education Press; September 26, 2023; Price: $38.00), is a relentlessly frank look at higher education from the perspective of a long-time…
Yves here. It is puzzling to see the Biden ouster movement getting serious only as of the David Ignatius’ spooky contacts pressing him to write a Washington Post piece urging both Biden and Harris not to run again. I am not…
We don’t know much, but we know tax cuts and tariffs are on the agenda. I suppose that, while he might not execute the Fed Chair (that’s reserved for a select few), he is likely to try to otherwise eject him/her…
Coming tomorrow morning – the revisions to GDP over the last five years incorporating lots of new source data may change substantially our understanding of the evolution of economic activity (discussion by Claudia Sahm) (in contrast, last year’s annual revisions didn’t…
by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2023 08:23:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 206 thousand initial claims,…
CROWE and Young America’s Foundation are bringing Arthur Laffer to speak at UW Madison today (Grainger Hall, Plenary Room, 5:30-6:30 CT). The timing is fortuitous, as the state Senate is moving forward on passing AB386, which would exempt some portion of…
The chair of the Federal Trade Commission wants to disrupt Amazon, whose founder built a trillion-dollar firm by disrupting retail.Jeff Bezos made his fortune with one truly big idea: What if a retailer did everything possible to make customers happy?His forcefully…
Mapped: The Migration of the World’s Millionaires in 2023 Source: Visual Capitalist
by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2023 04:13:00 PM Two key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower…
This is absolutely insane. TAMU was probably one of the most conservative flagship state universities in the nation https://t.co/z3yVLvoe7I — constans (@constans) September 25, 2023
The F.T.C. chair, who published an influential law school paper on the e-commerce giant, is now fighting the company over its market dominance.Lina Khan, the F.T.C. chair, takes her first big swing at Amazon.Tom Brenner for The New York TimesA battle…
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Eurasian Nuthatch, Fishponds Open Space, London, England, United Kingdom. With chiming London bell. * * * Politics “So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact…
by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2023 01:29:00 PM First, shutdowns are expensive, and many government employees continue to work (like the military), but don't get paid. This time President Biden and Speaker McCarthy agreed on a plan, but the Speaker has been…
1. Burkey Belser, RIP. 2. Why is multilateralism in the tax sphere surviving when multilateralism is collapsing elsewhere? 3. The U.S. effects of banning cousin marriage. 4. I am not convinced, but here is an argument that AI will lead to…
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