Finance
As societies become richer, and basic needs are satisfied, zero-sum positional contests gain more prominence, while the regular positivesum benefits of markets subside in the background. As long argued by Hirsch, Frank and others, the institutions for managing resource scarcity and…
This recently published paper by Selim Sametoğlu, Dirk H. M. Pelt, and Meike Bartels, is based on a clever idea, namely to look at twin studies to see if heavy social media users have innate tendenciees toward lower social well-being. Overall…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 07:16:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025Monday: • At 10:00 AM ET, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50…
With the outsized jump in the PPI, the natural question to ask is whether this implies a jump in the CPI. The evidence is mixed in terms of the aggregate PPI and the aggregate CPI, as noted in this post. More…
The people who are really good understand sourcing and how important it is for critical thinking. The education should be focused on helping people recognize and refute bullshit. Step one is the critical thinking necessary to say, “This makes no sense,”…
From Daily Signal: President Donald Trump was right to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, for these mistakes, even if they were the result of systemic flaws, not partisanship. Antoni, whom Trump nominated as her replacement on Monday, can…
1. Australia’s great stagnation. 2. Ezra Klein interviews Natasha Sarin (NYT). She is not only an excellent economist, but she avoids exaggeration, an increasingly rare trait in public discourse. 3. “Researchers at Johns Hopkins, Stanford, and Optosurgical trained SRT-H, a dual-transformer…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM From Goldman: On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP…
Answer: America won. Every generation launches a new competitor to America and the people who don’t like capitalism and America’s individualist, free market economy trumpet that now the American way is being left in the dust. In the progressive era it…
Skier black flips while there’s an ongoing avalanche 🤯 pic.twitter.com/h4AQaM1lND — Dudes Posting Their W’s (@DudespostingWs) December 23, 2024 How the Government Built the American Dream House The New Atlantis What Counts as Work? Plough Webb Telescope Spots Oldest Black Hole,…
Greetings gentle readers, welcome to another installment of the Sunday Morning Movie. Today I have a neo-noir crime drama for you, more Mitchum goodness: The Friends of Eddie Coyle. Reviews: Ebert says: The movie is as simple as that. It’s not…
Conor here: All this framing of Democrats vs. Trump authoritarianism really rings hollow considering they also love getting “tough on crime”—as long as it’s not the white collar variety or the social murder that occurs daily across the country. Democrats are…
At Camp Social, creating chemistry is everything: campers are divided by age, which range from 20s to 60s, into bunks of eight to 10. Each is staffed with a trained counselor who serves as a camp concierge and bonding facilitator—they are…
Jeff Asher: Within a city, within a district, there are times, either by mistake or by intention, that an agency will manipulate a certain type of crime. There are times where things will get underreported. There will be mistakes. There are…
The gap between US companies’ borrowing costs and US Treasury yields has shrunk to its smallest since 1998, after a red-hot rally in global credit markets that investors warn is underplaying threats to the world economy. The cost of borrowing for…
Here is the intro: Over time, I’ve noticed that an unusual number of important films came out in the late 1950s and early 1960s. In this post, I’ll argue that the period from 1958 to 1963 is the artistic peak of…
1. Ten year old Indian girl beats grandmaster in chess. 2. Low birthrates today forecast low house price appreciation in the future. 3. Dubov on working with Magnus (subtitles in English). 4. One hypothesis about the best news in America right…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. ----- Monday, August 18th -----…
Archaeologists in Mexico Discover Long-Lost City Inhabited by Maya Rebels Who Resisted the Spanish Conquest Smithsonian (Chuck L) Exposure to some common Pfas changes gene activity, new study finds Guardian (resilc) Scientists may have found the tiny DNA switch that made…
Yves here. We have been telling readers in comments, who labor under the misapprehension that the big Trump budget bill cut only Medicaid, that it also whacked Medicare bigly. This development is yet another “Die faster!” scheme. It also points to…
Yves here. This is seriously not good. I don’t understand how something as destructive as ChatGPT is being aggressively embraced. And it is not only imposing planetary-destruction cost but more mundane increased power costs to consumers generally. By Haley Zaremba, a…
Potvin’s team dissected and examined the bodies of nearly 500 birds belonging to five common Australian species: the Australian magpie, laughing kookaburra, crested pigeon, rainbow lorikeet, and the scaly breasted lorikeet(…)In addition to identifying the birds’ reproductive organs, researchers also tested…
Manufacturing employment, exports declines. Employment release from DWD today.
From a recent paper: Populists are often defined as those who claim that they fill “political representation gaps” -differences between the policymaking by established parties and the “popular will.” Research has largely neglected to what extent this claim is correct. I study…
It’s really a statement on our times. Source; Kalshi, accessed 8/15/2025. As noted in an excellent article by Lauren Gurley in WaPo, these are some views of Dr. Antoni, two of which I was unaware of: Bureau of Labor Statistics data…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in JulyA brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Early Read on Existing Home Sales in JulyBased on publicly available…
Part the First: AI and Deskilling in Healthcare. Yes, it does happen as described in the news article As AI spreads through health care, is the technology degrading providers’ skills? (New study suggests that, after having a specialized tool taken away,…
Preliminary readings for August. Not particularly good. Figure 1: One year ahead CPI inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), Consumer Sentiment (red, right scale). Dashed line at “Liberation Day”. Source: U.Michigan. 5 year inflation expectations at 3.9% were up from 3.4%,…
The picture as of today’s releases, with IP, retail sales below consensus. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), implied NFP Bloomberg consensus as of 7/1 (blue +), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), personal income…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for…
This week, I speak with Deven Parekh, Managing Director at Insight Partners, a growth equity investment fund based in New York City. Since joining Insight in 2000, he has made more than 140 investments in enterprise software, data, and consumer internet…
Yves here. Articles like this drive me crazy. The efforts to shore up a discredited medical orthodoxy, here with vaccines, demonstrates in a pet peeve cognitive bias, that of black and white thinking. It is undeniable that RFK, Jr. getting a…
Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him. David recently published Saudi Arabia: A Modern History, a very good and useful book. He has numerous other books on Wahhabism, the history of the Gulf region, and also Syria. Currently he…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food…
Tyler already linked to Max’s excellent post on flight delays but Fortune gives you the backstory: On one sweltering summer afternoon in June, thunderstorms rolled over Boston Logan International Airport. It was the kind of brief, predictable summer squall that East…
Why are Colorado rabbits growing tentacles and horns? Denver Post Insecure about their looks, more men than ever are getting plastic surgery STAT Climate/Environment International “State of the Climate” report confirms record-high greenhouse gases, global temperatures, global sea level, and ocean…
[If you see this note, it means the post launched before complete because reasons. Please return at 7:45 AM EDT for a final version] It’s telling when a mainstream outlets like the Wall Street Journal is alert enough to notice an…
Javier Milei is desperate to declare Netanyahu an “honorary resident” of Argentina. But if the Israeli prime minister visits the South American country, he could face arrest. Argentina’s Javier Milei government is arguably the most vocal, unabashed supporter of Israel’s war…
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MATTHEWS: What was the debate about import substitution like at this point, in the late 1950s/early 1960s? KRUEGER: The whole profession believed in import substitution. Almost without question. Even Gottfried Haberler, in his lectures in 1959, said that, of course, infant…
Yves here. Trump is engaged in an ideological and even legitimacy war with major US universities, and has scored a lot of wins. As we warned, this is Pol Pot lite, trying to decimate the creation of highly credentialed and trained…
Here is a new NBER working paper: As geopolitical tensions intensify, great powers often turn to trade policy to influence international alignment. We examine the optimal design of tariffs in a world where large countries care not only about economic welfare…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:45:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 06:21:00 PM From First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming Housing Market Returning to Reality as National Price Growth Cools Further in July, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report Highlights• Annual…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 03:15:00 PM From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 9 August The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 9 August. ...3-9 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week…
JLL estimates $170bn of assets will require construction lending or permanent financing this year. Between now and 2029, however, global spending on data centres will hit almost $3tn, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Of that, just $1.4tn is forecast to come…
The University of Chicago has now borrowed $6.3 billion, more than 70 percent of the value of its endowment. The cost of servicing its debt is now 85 percent of the value of all undergraduate tuition. (This is not normal. No…
Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s president, has called for an emergency meeting of Latin American countries to respond to a “threat” by the United States. He is referring to the executive order supposedly signed by Trump and reported by The New York Times,…
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