Finance
Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators (recalling all the most recent data will be revised): Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), implied…
Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow the permanent income hypothesis — at least halfway (DSGE’s usually incorporate about 50% hand-to-mouth consumers). So what do we see? Figure…
Policy uncertainty through 8/1: Figure 1: EPU – trade (blue, left scale), EPU (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com.
This week, I speak with Erik Hirsch, Co-Chief Executive Officer at Hamilton Lane, previously serving as CIO and Head of Strategic Initiatives. As co-CEO, he is responsible for the firm’s strategic direction and operations. Erik is also Vice Chairman and a trustee…
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CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I can’t… Here’s y/y growth rate of the official series and the seasonally adjusted series. Figure 1: Year-on-year growth…
As of 1:35PM CT today, the President has fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, within 6 hours of the latest employment release. So what all of feared about the safety of the independence of our economic statistical agencies has come to…
Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data indicating a slowdown. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll Employment, July release (bold black, right log scale), implied Bloomberg consensus…
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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Sohaib Nasim. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. Donald Trump…
Baker, Bloom and Davis and Caldara et al. measures: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale). Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis policyuncertainty.com, and Caldara et al. TPUD. [updated 7/28] Tariffs will go into…
Though not quite to February rates: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), core PCE deflator (market) (green) per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and author’s calculations. How has inflation evolved for people…
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CRFB spreadsheet here for now; to be updated. Figure 1: CBO GDP projection from January 2025 (black), implied CEA June forecast (blue), both in bn.Ch.2017$, by fiscal year. Source: CRFB. A quarterly look at the CEA implied forecast calculated by me here.…
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release yesterday, looking at different aspects of economic activity: Quarterly Indicators First, ignoring the self-congratulatory remarks of CEA47, consider the level of GDP relative to the 2024H2 trend: Figure 1: GDP fm Q2…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the second quarter. I have some concerns, but it looks better than many economists had been anticipating. Quarterly real GDP growth…
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Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales to private domestic purchasers. Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of 7/25 (red *), GDPNow of…
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The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Neil Dutta, Economics Chief at Renaissance Macro Research, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your…
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This week, I speak with Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. Neil leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent…
A top housing finance regulator announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would allow lenders to use the traditional FICO score or one from a rival, VantageScore.Your credit score helps determine if you’ll qualify for a loan and what interest rate…
The cryptocurrency has extended its rally as lawmakers consider legislation that would bring digital tokens further into the mainstream.Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are soaring, and backers have suggested that President Trump deserves much of the credit.Doug Mills/The New York TimesAndrew here.…
I wanted to drop a quick note regarding some recent CPI data and tariffs. There is a fundamental misunderstanding (aka political spin) about the impact of tariffs.. It won’t take very much math to put the effect of tariffs into a…
President Trump has become more hostile to the Federal Reserve’s chair. Markets aren’t worried yet, but some on Wall Street are getting more concerned.President Trump said he had no imminent plans to try to fire Jay Powell as Fed chair. But…
A thief swiped a traveler’s wallet at the Barcelona airport and later used her card to take out more than $1,100 in cash. Why was her fraud claim denied?Dear Tripped Up,Arriving at the Barcelona airport last Sept. 18, I tried to…
The crypto industry was headed for a landmark moment in the House with three bills that it helped push going to a vote. But a coalition of ultraconservative House Republicans staged a mutiny.It was supposed to be “crypto week” on Capitol…
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The JPMorgan Chase chief has long been skeptical of the nontraditional, and less regulated, lending business. Now he thinks its best days may be over.The private-credit industry may have seen its best days, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase warned.Al Drago for…
The tech giants said they can resume selling high-end semiconductors to China, in what appears to be a major about-face for the Trump administration.Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s C.E.O., scored a potentially big win for the chipmaker amid President Trump’s trade war.I-Hwa Cheng/Agence…
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The safety net for federal student loan borrowers is about to be sharply overhauled.The domestic policy bill that was signed into law recently makes radical changes to the way Americans will pay for college, and could make access to higher education…
As more airlines charge for traditional carry-on bags, those who don’t want to pay need to fit everything into a tote, small duffel bag, daypack or roomy purse. Here’s how.I once flew Spirit Airlines round-trip to Las Vegas from Chicago for…
Members of the lab, including the new chief A.I. officer, Alexandr Wang, have talked about abandoning Meta’s most powerful open source A.I. model in favor of developing a closed one.Meta’s newly formed superintelligence lab has discussed making a series of changes…
After European Union leaders said they would keep negotiating instead of immediately retaliating against President Trump’s latest threat, businesses remain unable to develop long-term plans.Even as European Union negotiators redoubled efforts to secure a trade deal with the United States, businesses…
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Economists had already downgraded growth for the European Union, and the new duties would hit industries there especially hard. Companies are looking for ways to blunt the impact.The European economy, already weakened by an intensifying trade war, faces a new threat…
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Traders have repeatedly shrugged off President Trump’s disruptive tariff wars and fiscal policy, pushing U.S. stock prices back into expensive territory, our columnist says.Market meltdowns have been a big worry lately, and for good reason. With President Trump imposing the highest…
The new domestic policy law rewrites tax rules for the hundreds of billions of dollars Americans legally wager each year. A Nevada lawmaker has introduced a bill to overturn that provision.Andrew here. This morning we’re taking a look at an overlooked…
The federal cap on the amounts people can borrow means some of them will fall short. That’s especially true for students in professional schools.The road map for families paying for higher education used to read something like this: Step one, save…
Google recruited the chief executive and a co-founder of Windsurf, which OpenAI had been in talks to buy, as the battle to dominate artificial intelligence escalates.Google has joined Silicon Valley’s scramble to scoop up artificial intelligence engineers, hiring the leaders of…
Stocks have hit new highs despite President Trump’s escalating trade war. Some traders may be calling his bluff, but Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase advises caution.Why are markets rallying amid a raging trade war? Too much “complacency,” said Jamie Dimon of…
This week, I speak with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which manages or advises on $15.7B in AUM focusing on Macro trends rather than individual stock selection. Rich has over 35 years′ experience on Wall…
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