Finance
Shocker in PPI: 0.9% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (green), core PPI (tan) per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Source: BLS, BEA, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 12:26:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Second Quarter of 2025The delinquency rate for…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 10:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 10:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing…
Yves here. The article below looks at researchers who are taking a “lessons learned” approach to cancer, as in focusing on patients who markedly beat the odds, either in surviving cancer or not getting it at all. We have some readers…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was…
Meet Maple: Former K-9 now beekeeper at MSU WKAR They led police on a wild L.A. car chase, then managed to get away. Who helped them escape? Los Angeles Times Our Culture is Addicted to Validation Freddie deBoer Mouse Farm Orion…
Yves here. It’s become fashionable, at least in the commentariat, to exhibit the cognitive bias called “halo effect” with respect to Bernie Sanders. “Halo effect” is the tendency to see people as all good or all bad. This is the distortion…
Yves here. This is a terrific talk in which James Galbraith, recapping his work in Entropy Economics, explains how the foundations of economics are fundamentally at odds with the operation and limits of our physical world. Trust me, either put it…
In this paper, we use ChatGPT outages to provide early evidence on whether investors rely on generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) to perform professional tasks and the associated impact on stock price informativeness. We document a significant decline in stock trading volume…
Yves here. Tom Neuburger continues his systematic coverage of how the US constitutional order is being revised to favor even more those at the top. I am stunned at the way the Trump-Putin summit is sucking the air supply out of…
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver’s tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic…
SP Global’s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3): Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), Bloomberg implied consensus as of 8/13 (red square), personal…
Thanks to Paul Krugman for citing my brief paper on EJ Antoni’s 2022 recession claim, in “Hackification”, all in the cause of exposing the abuses of data now taking place. Krugman quotes Hannah Arendt: Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 07:30:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase…
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The Posse Comitatus Act looms over President Trump’s decision to take over the Washington, D.C. police, his previous decision to assume control of the California National Guard, and the redistricting battle in Texas. On August 11, The White House issued a…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 01:19:00 PM Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time.The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948.The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to…
Here is YouTube, here is Spotify. Yonatan is a very smart venture capitalist. About 34 minutes, recommended!
Yves here. Given the imminent Trump-Putin summit, Russia is very much in the focus, as is the new US provocation in its Caucasus back yard via Trump’s loudly-announced plan for a 99 year lease on the Zangezur Corridor, which borders Iran.…
by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 09:50:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in JulyA brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals…
During the pandemic, many restrictions on telemedicine were lifted, making it far easier for physicians to treat patients across state lines. That window has largely closed. Today, unless a doctor is separately licensed in a patient’s state—or the states have a…
We Don’t Have to Anthropomorphize Animals to Care About Them The Revelator Jobs and Hints of Recession Dollars & Sense CPI report: Core inflation rises by most in six months, stoking tariff-driven price concerns Yahoo! Finance Can I Eat Instant Noodles…
It’s been painful to observe the wretched state of reporting in the runup to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska this Friday. Admittedly, the Trump side gaslighted the press with talk of territory swaps, an idea which if it was voiced in…
The 7 August 2025 issue of Nature included an interesting article on The Science Fiction Science Method (paywall) by Iyad Rahwan, Azim Shariff, and Jean-François Bonnefon. The scientific method is difficult enough to understand these days, especially regarding previously important but…
A key reason for the global financial cycle, as outlined by Hélène Rey, is that many firms and financial institutions in developing countries borrow heavily in U.S. dollars while their revenues, assets, and cash flows are denominated in local currency. When…
Yves here. Due to having closely chronicled the 2007-2008 crisis, and then learning even more afterward by continuing to dig into what happened, yours truly has a strong point of view about what happened. In his post below, Richard Murphy correctly…
The author is Philip K. Howard and the subtitle is How to Revive the Spirit of America. The book is short, to the point, in the “abundance + state capacity” genre. Excerpt, noting I will not double indent: “Three major changes…
A paper (Nov. 2024) (first version Oct. 2024): Downloadable data used in the paper here [xlsx]. This paper is a rebuttal to this article (paper on different server, in case article disappears from original site). Key graph from their paper: .…
We find that decreases in Michelin stars improve consumer review ratings…The analysis of review content further shows that a loss in Michelin stars leads consumers to become less focused on value and become less demanding regarding service. Here is the paper. …
1. Bells ringing before Vespers. 2. Sensible comments on AI. 3. At least thirty-three crypto kidnappings this year? 4. University presidents arguing with each other. 5. Some reasons why DC has been getting worse, of course add Work from Home (which…
From CNN today: “Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,” he told Fox Business. “Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 02:13:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased…
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The F-35 fighter jet is the most expensive weapons program in U.S. history, but one of its biggest failures isn’t in the air — it’s on the ground. The Pentagon’s Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS), conceived as an ambitious plan to…
From the CPI release today: Figure 1: CPI all urban (bold blue), CPI – household furnishings and operations (tan), CPI – final demand, consumer durables (green), all in logs 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, author’s calculations. While m/m CPI headline growth…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 12:03:00 PM The BLS reported earlier today: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 316.349 (1982-84=100). For the…
Done with Liberty Fund, I very much enjoyed chatting with him. Here is the link. Here is their episode summary: Tyler Cowen joins Mitch Daniels to explore AI’s promise, economic threats from debt and regulation, and the need for bold, intelligent…
Yves here. The horrors of Israel’s genocide in Gaza become more intense and wide-ranging as the pace of its extermination accelerates. Israel is also stepping up its ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. It is attacking Southern Lebanon as the Lebanese…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 08:51:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation:The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch. Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the YoY price…
by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics…
Jellyfish force French reactor shutdowns, strain grid Euractiv So bad they’re good – why do we love terrible films? BBC (Robin K) Learning Greek – A Practical Guide Spengler (Micael T) #COVID-19/Pandemics Measles Cases by State in 2025 Visual Capitalist The…
The Trump administration’s latest escalatory threat comes just days after Rolling Stone reported on a secret drug trafficking cartel operating out of Fort Bragg. Picture this scenario: Mexico’s government is grappling with an institutional crisis. Lawlessness is on the rise as…
Yves here. This VoxEU column, originally titled Recent patterns in global risk behaviour in financial markets, seeks to measure a “safe-haven factor” for the dollar and ascertain how it has operated over time and since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff shock and…
A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely…
In an important bit of reporting, THE CITY documents how New York City now outstrips the entire nation in its rate of ICE arrests in city courthouses. Mind you, that means the people that ICE is nabbing were seeking to obey…
Bloomberg, Truflation at 2.8% y/y; Cleveland Fed at 2.72%. Figure 1: CPI-all (bold black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (red triangle), Bloomberg consensus, Truflation estimate (light blue square). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, Truflation, author’s calculations.
Anya Singh, Hawthorne, CA/YC, to help protect IP. Patrick Murphy, Limerick, travel grant. Daryna Hrybchuk, 18, Lviv, general career support. Ari Shtein, Ann Arbor, Michigan/Yale, 17, general career support. Vadzim Rayinchick, Belarus/SF, “Confessions”. Garret Thomas Molloy, Dublin/Stanford, travel and study grant.…
From CNBC: “I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Highly Respected Economist, Dr. E.J. Antoni, as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday evening. Just to clarify, Dr. Antoni declared…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation ReportThe average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over…
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