Bloomberg, Truflation at 2.8% y/y; Cleveland Fed at 2.72%. Figure 1: CPI-all (bold black), Cleveland Fed nowcast (red triangle), Bloomberg consensus, Truflation estimate (light blue square). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, Truflation, author’s calculations.
Anya Singh, Hawthorne, CA/YC, to help protect IP. Patrick Murphy, Limerick, travel grant. Daryna Hrybchuk, 18, Lviv, general career support. Ari Shtein, Ann Arbor, Michigan/Yale, 17, general career support. Vadzim Rayinchick, Belarus/SF, “Confessions”. Garret Thomas Molloy, Dublin/Stanford, travel and study grant.…
From CNBC: “I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Highly Respected Economist, Dr. E.J. Antoni, as the next Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday evening. Just to clarify, Dr. Antoni declared…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Steady Ahead of High Stakes Inflation ReportThe average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over…
Let’s hope capex investment in data centers is sustained. Figure 1: Nonresidential fixed investment (blue) GDPNow of 8/7 (light blue square), nonresidential fixed investment minus data center capex (dark red), GDPNow of 8/7 (red square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Annual data…
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Thomas Pepinsky (Cornell University). Are cryptocurrencies viable as money? What is the economic function of “shitcoins” and “stablecoins”? And how can we understand the political…
Oracle billionaire CEO Larry Ellison is aggressively moving into media and military contracting to consolidate his power in the Trump 2.0 era. Larry Ellison’s ambitions have been known in Silicon Valley for a long time, as this 2003 biography’s title reveals:…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 01:50:00 PM Back in 2005 I was mostly writing about the housing bubble - and the coming housing bust. But I also mentioned the possibility of a financial crisis. In early 2007, I started forecasting a…
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We implement five different tests of whether grand juries, which are drawn from a representative cross-section of the public, discriminate against Black defendants when deciding to prosecute felony cases. Three tests exploit that while jurors do not directly observe defendant race,…
by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 10:49:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to CoolBrief excerpt: House Price Growth Continues to SlowHere is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price…
I must confess to be wanting in imagination. Widespread adoption of smartphones has led to a fall in social skills. Examples are pervasive, such a family members fooling with their devices rather than talking to each other at meals and our…
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Member-only storyMuhammad Arifeen ✍️4 min read·1 day ago--Press enter or click to view image in full sizePhoto by Shubham Dhage on UnsplashWhen I first got into blockchain a few years back, I thought it was all about Bitcoin and quick trades.…
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by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.8% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 37.6% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21% from the seasonal low by this week in…
After a week of reviewing the tax-free exclusion rule for selling a rental property, I decided not to sell. I’d already used my $500,000 tax-free exclusion amount and would need to wait at least two more years before I could potentially…
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Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO INVESTINGA Guide to Reading Crypto’s Most Important Money Flow SignalDominalt14 min read·2 days ago--Altcoins are finally showing strength. Your feed is yelling alt season; your friend is shilling you a…
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyRIPPLE ECOSYSTEMUnveiling the path to exponential Ripple growthDominalt6 min read·2 days ago--When it comes to altcoins, the dream has always been to turn $100 into $500, or maybe $1,000. How about…
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyRIPPLE ECOSYSTEMUS unlocks trillions as the XRP bull run begins.Dominalt10 min read·2 days ago--The US just released a historic announcement that could spark the next leg up for the bull run.…
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO REPORTSFrom Short Squeezes to Macro Indicators: Decoding Crypto RalliesDominalt13 min read·1 day ago--If you’re reading this article, chances are it’s because the crypto market is rallying. Even though there are…
Member-only storyChip Mahoney2 min read·4 days ago--Press enter or click to view image in full sizePhoto by Johannes Plenio on Unsplash$200 million.That’s what Ripple just spent to acquire Rail, a Toronto-based payments platform powering 10% of global stablecoin transactions.And here’s the…
TheNewAutonomy8 min read·Jul 26, 2025--Press enter or click to view image in full size(as of July 24, 2025)TL;DROnly a few categories are truly proven at scale today: stablecoins, core DeFi (DEXs, lending, liquid staking), and blockspace (L1/L2 fees & sequencer revenue).RWAs…
Member-only storyDipanshu Chaudhry11 min read·2 days ago--Ethereum’s recent price surge and Tom Lee’s contentious new prediction that ETH would reach $16,000 are making news in the cryptocurrency world.Lee’s projection suggests a growth of more than 4X, which sparked both excitement and…
Onur Akin3 min read·16 hours ago--Press enter or click to view image in full sizePi Coin is a young and rather curious participant in the cryptocurrency world that has already gained millions of users due to its peculiar smartphone-based mining system.Recently,…
Press enter or click to view image in full sizeMember-only storyCRYPTO COMPARINGA head-to-head battle of crypto titansDominalt8 min read·2 days ago--SEI Network, ticker SEI, and Hedera, ticker HBAR, are both titans in the crypto sector. In line with our battle of…
R&D investment has grown robustly, yet aggregate productivity growth has stagnated. Is this because “ideas are getting harder to find”? This paper uses micro-data from the US Census Bureau to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in the manufacturing sector…
By Dr. Rikki Racela, WCI Columnist As a doctor with a competitive edge and an undying interest in personal finance, I couldn’t help but think about one thing when I was becoming financially literate. Who had the better retirement plan offered…
The author is Samuel Scheffler, and the subtitle is The Mysteries of Time and the Goods of Attachment. He is one of America’s leading philosophers, and proves it once again here. Much of this book is devoted to arguing against Derek…
Courtesy of Ed Yardeni: Source: Yardeni as edited by Chinn. In terms of assessing how the general economy is responding to tariff and other uncertainty shocks, one might want to look at the SP500 excluding the Magnificent 7. As of August…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 06:23:00 PM Weekend: • Schedule for Week of August 10, 2025Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are up 54 (fair value).Oil…
XRP is testing crucial resistance near $3.65 as soaring ETF approval odds and Ripple’s SEC victory fuel hopes for a breakout. Ripple’s Legal Win Sparks ETF Optimism and Lifts XRP Price Outlook XRP’s prospects for a U.S. exchange-traded fund approval have…
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We’re about halfway into Q3. Nowcasts put equipment and structures investment — particularly forward looking investment — at near flat relative to Q2. Figure 1: Equipment and Structures investment (blue line, left log scale), GDPNow nowcast of 8/7 (light blue square),…
Back-to-school season is here, and you don’t have to be a student to take advantage of that feeling of renewal. This is the perfect time to open a fresh notebook, review your finances and make a plan for the rest of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2025 08:42:00 AM The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for…
We estimate transitory and permanent import tariff shocks in the United States over the postwar period. We find that transitory tariff increases are neither inflationary nor contractionary, and are not associated with monetary tightening. In contrast, permanent tariff increases trigger a…
By Josh Katzowitz, WCI Content Director Maybe it’s just me, but whenever an investor talks about a 60/40 portfolio—where 60% of the investment is invested in equities (which are considered risky but which will likely make you more money in the…
A BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR AI? The Doomer narratives were wrong. Predicated on a “rapid take-off” to AGI, they predicted that the leading AI model would use its intelligence to self-improve, leaving others in the dust, and quickly achieving a godlike…
by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2025 02:11:00 PM At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:Click on graph for larger image.• Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan…
Personally, I’m not convinced, but if you are, then consider this graph: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from July release (bold black), from June release (green), civilian employment adjusted to the NFP concept, experimental research series using smoothed population controls (bold…
Here’re other prior 2 month cumulative revisions, normalized by employment (after all, the country has been growing for the past 100 years): Source: Abecasis, Walker, “US Daily: Q&A on the Revisions in the July Employment Report,” Goldman Sachs, August 2, 2025.…
Businessweek, August 27, 2019 Let’s get this out of the way upfront: There is no such entity as the “Shadow Kansas City Federal Reserve Board.” This isn’t a “The first rule of Fight Club” situation. No one denies that a gathering of…
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